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Title: Quantifying type-specific reproduction numbers for nosocomial pathogens: Evidence for heightened transmission of an Asian sequence type 239 MRSA clone
Authors: Ben S. Cooper
Theodore Kypraios
Rahul Batra
Duncan Wyncoll
Olga Tosas
Jonathan D. Edgeworth
Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine
Mahidol University
University of Nottingham
King's College London
Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust
Keywords: Agricultural and Biological Sciences;Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology;Computer Science;Environmental Science;Mathematics;Neuroscience
Issue Date: 1-Apr-2012
Citation: PLoS Computational Biology. Vol.8, No.4 (2012)
Abstract: An important determinant of a pathogen's success is the rate at which it is transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts. Although there are anecdotal reports that methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clones vary in their transmissibility in hospital settings, attempts to quantify such variation are lacking for common subtypes, as are methods for addressing this question using routinely-collected MRSA screening data in endemic settings. Here we present a method to quantify the time-varying transmissibility of different subtypes of common bacterial nosocomial pathogens using routine surveillance data. The method adapts approaches for estimating reproduction numbers based on the probabilistic reconstruction of epidemic trees, but uses relative hazards rather than serial intervals to assign probabilities to different sources for observed transmission events. The method is applied to data collected as part of a retrospective observational study of a concurrent MRSA outbreak in the United Kingdom with dominant endemic MRSA clones (ST22 and ST36) and an Asian ST239 MRSA strain (ST239-TW) in two linked adult intensive care units, and compared with an approach based on a fully parametric transmission model. The results provide support for the hypothesis that the clones responded differently to an infection control measure based on the use of topical antiseptics, which was more effec tive at reducing transmission of endemic clones. They also suggest that in one of the two ICUs patients colonized or infected with the ST239-TW MRSA clone had consistently higher risks of transmitting MRSA to patients free of MRSA. These findings represent some of the first quantitative evidence of enhanced transmissibility of a pandemic MRSA lineage, and highlight the potential value of tailoring hospital infection control measures to specific pathogen subtypes. © 2012 Cooper et al.
ISSN: 15537358
Appears in Collections:Scopus 2011-2015

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