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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/dspace/handle/123456789/34204
Title: The Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand
Authors: Piraya Bhoomiboonchoo
Robert V. Gibbons
Angkana Huang
In Kyu Yoon
Darunee Buddhari
Ananda Nisalak
Natkamol Chansatiporn
Mathuros Thipayamongkolgul
Siripen Kalanarooj
Timothy Endy
Alan L. Rothman
Anon Srikiatkhachorn
Sharone Green
Mammen P. Mammen
Derek A. Cummings
Henrik Salje
Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Thailand
Mahidol University
Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health
State University of New York Upstate Medical University
University of Rhode Island
University of Massachusetts Medical School
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Keywords: Medicine
Issue Date: 1-Sep-2014
Citation: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. Vol.8, No.9 (2014)
Abstract: © 2014. Dengue is endemic to the rural province of Kamphaeng Phet, Northern Thailand. A decade of prospective cohort studies has provided important insights into the dengue viruses and their generated disease. However, as elsewhere, spatial dynamics of the pathogen remain poorly understood. In particular, the spatial scale of transmission and the scale of clustering are poorly characterized. This information is critical for effective deployment of spatially targeted interventions and for understanding the mechanisms that drive the dispersal of the virus.We geocoded the home locations of 4,768 confirmed dengue cases admitted to the main hospital in Kamphaeng Phet province between 1994 and 2008. We used the phi clustering statistic to characterize short-term spatial dependence between cases. Further, to see if clustering of cases led to similar temporal patterns of disease across villages, we calculated the correlation in the long-term epidemic curves between communities. We found that cases were 2.9 times (95% confidence interval 2.7–3.2) more likely to live in the same village and be infected within the same month than expected given the underlying spatial and temporal distribution of cases. This fell to 1.4 times (1.2–1.7) for individuals living in villages 1 km apart. Significant clustering was observed up to 5 km. We found a steadily decreasing trend in the correlation in epidemics curves by distance: communities separated by up to 5 km had a mean correlation of 0.28 falling to 0.16 for communities separated between 20 km and 25 km. A potential explanation for these patterns is a role for human movement in spreading the pathogen between communities. Gravity style models, which attempt to capture population movement, outperformed competing models in describing the observed correlations.There exists significant short-term clustering of cases within individual villages. Effective spatially and temporally targeted interventions deployed within villages may target ongoing transmission and reduce infection risk.
URI: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84907584639&origin=inward
http://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/dspace/handle/123456789/34204
ISSN: 19352735
19352727
Appears in Collections:Scopus 2011-2015

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