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Title: Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach
Authors: Barbara Entwisle
Nathalie E. Williams
Ashton M. Verdery
Ronald R. Rindfuss
Stephen J. Walsh
George P. Malanson
Peter J. Mucha
Brian G. Frizzelle
Philip M. McDaniel
Xiaozheng Yao
Benjamin W. Heumann
Pramote Prasartkul
Yothin Sawangdee
Aree Jampaklay
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Carolina Population Center
University of Washington, Seattle
East West Centre
University of Iowa
Central Michigan University
Mahidol University
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Pennsylvania State University
Keywords: Environmental Science
Issue Date: 1-Sep-2016
Citation: Population and Environment. Vol.38, No.1 (2016), 47-71
Abstract: © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media New York. This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.
ISSN: 15737810
Appears in Collections:Scopus 2016-2017

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