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Title: Modeling the dynamics of plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in humans during malaria infection
Authors: Pengxing Cao
Katharine A. Collins
Sophie Zaloumis
Thanaporn Wattanakul
Joel Tarning
Julie A. Simpson
James McCarthy
James M. McCaw
The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity
University of Melbourne
QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute
Mahidol University
Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine
Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre
School of Mathematics and Statistics
Keywords: Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology;Immunology and Microbiology
Issue Date: 1-Oct-2019
Citation: eLife. Vol.8, (2019)
Abstract: © Cao et al. Renewed efforts to eliminate malaria have highlighted the potential to interrupt human-to-mosquito transmission — a process mediated by gametocyte kinetics in human hosts. Here we study the in vivo dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes by establishing a framework which incorporates improved measurements of parasitemia, a novel gametocyte dynamics model and model fitting using Bayesian hierarchical inference. We found that the model provides an excellent fit to the clinical data from 17 volunteers infected with P. falciparum (3D7 strain) and reliably predicts observed gametocytemia. We estimated the sexual commitment rate and gametocyte sequestration time to be 0.54% (95% credible interval: 0.30–1.00%) per asexual replication cycle and 8.39 (6.54–10.59) days respectively. We used the data-calibrated model to investigate human-to-mosquito transmissibility, providing a method to link within-human host infection kinetics to epidemiological-scale infection and transmission patterns.
ISSN: 2050084X
Appears in Collections:Scopus 2019

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