Impact of Welfare Card Scheme on Household Economic Development in Rural Thailand

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of the welfare card program—an unconditional cash transfer program—in reducing poverty in rural Thailand. The study uses a difference-in-differences framework incorporated with coarsened exact matching from the Thailand–Vietnam Socio-Economic Panel project to assess both targeting effectiveness and household economic impact. The findings revealed significant targeting challenges, with both inclusion and exclusion errors. There is no significant evidence that unconditional cash transfers affect recipients’ economic outcomes in terms of increased accumulated wealth, savings, productive assets, or reduced debt. However, welfare cards increase the consumption expenditure of households earning below the minimum wage. Poverty reduction in Thailand requires shifting from marginal liquidity supplements to a holistic policy framework that combines rigorous eligibility screening with public investments in resilient coping capacities for rural households.