Kaewarpai T.Wright S.W.Yimthin T.Phunpang R.Dulsuk A.Lovelace-Macon L.Rerolle G.F.Dow D.B.Hantrakun V.Day N.P.J.Lertmemongkolchai G.Limmathurotsakul D.West T.E.Chantratita N.Mahidol University2023-07-242023-07-242023-01-01Frontiers in Medicine Vol.10 (2023)https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/88087Introduction: Melioidosis is an often-fatal tropical infectious disease caused by the Gram-negative bacillus Burkholderia pseudomallei, but few studies have identified promising biomarker candidates to predict outcome. Methods: In 78 prospectively enrolled patients hospitalized with melioidosis, six candidate protein biomarkers, identified from the literature, were measured in plasma at enrollment. A multi-biomarker model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, and mortality discrimination was compared to a clinical variable model by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Mortality prediction was confirmed in an external validation set of 191 prospectively enrolled patients hospitalized with melioidosis. Results: LASSO regression selected IL-1R2 and soluble triggering receptor on myeloid cells 1 (sTREM-1) for inclusion in the candidate biomarker model. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for mortality discrimination for the IL-1R2 + sTREM-1 model (AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.72–0.91) as well as for an IL-1R2-only model (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.68–0.88) were higher than for a model based on a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (AUC 0.69, 95% CI 0.56–0.81, p < 0.01, p = 0.03, respectively). In the external validation set, the IL-1R2 + sTREM-1 model (AUC 0.86, 95% CI 0.81–0.92) had superior 28-day mortality discrimination compared to a modified SOFA model (AUC 0.80, 95% CI 0.74–0.86, p < 0.01) and was similar to a model containing IL-1R2 alone (AUC 0.82, 95% CI 0.76–0.88, p = 0.33). Conclusion: Biomarker models containing IL-1R2 had improved 28-day mortality prediction compared to clinical variable models in melioidosis and may be targets for future, rapid test development.MedicineArticleSCOPUS10.3389/fmed.2023.12112652-s2.0-851649393182296858X