Matthias W. LorenzLu GaoKathrin ZiegelbauerGiuseppe Danilo NorataJean Philippe EmpanaIrene SchmidtmannHung Ju LinStela McLachlanLena BokemarkKimmo RonkainenMauro AmatoUlf SchminkeSathanur R. SrinivasanLars LindShuhei OkazakiCoen D.A. StehouwerPeter WilleitJoseph F. PolakHelmuth SteinmetzDirk SanderHolger PoppertMoise DesvarieuxM. Arfan IkramStein Harald JohnsenDaniel StaubCesare R. SirtoriBernhard IglsederOscar BeloquiGunnar EngströmAlfonso FrieraFrancesco RozzaWuxiang XieGrace ParragaLiliana GrigoreMatthieu PlichartStefan BlankenbergTa Chen SuCaroline SchmidtTomi Pekka TuomainenFabrizio VegliaHenry VölzkeGiel NijpelsJohann WilleitRalph L. SaccoOscar H. FrancoHeiko UthoffBo HedbladCarmen SuarezRaffaele IzzoDong ZhaoThapat WannarongAlberico CatapanoPierre DucimetiereChristine Espinola-KleinKuo Liong ChienJackie F. PriceGöran BergströmJussi KauhanenElena TremoliMarcus DörrGerald BerensonKazuo KitagawaJacqueline M. DekkerStefan KiechlMatthias SitzerHorst BickelTatjana RundekAlbert HofmanEllisiv B. MathiesenSamuela CastelnuovoManuel F. LandechoMaria RosvallRafael GabrielNicola de LucaJing LiuDamiano BaldassarreMaryam KavousiEric de GrootMichiel L. BotsDavid N. YanezSimon G. ThompsonDeutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislauf-Forschung e. V.University Hospital of North NorwayIRCCS MultimedicaItä-Suomen yliopistoIRCCS Centro Cardiologico MonzinoBeijing Anzhen HospitalNational Taiwan University HospitalCardiovascular Research Institute MaastrichtSahlgrenska University Hospital, Wallenberg LaboratoryUniversity Medical Center UtrechtErasmus University Medical CenterJohannes Gutenberg Universität MainzUniversity of CambridgeUniversità degli Studi di MilanoRobarts Research InstituteLunds UniversitetUniversite Paris DescartesUniversitätsspital BaselColumbia University Medical CenterUniversity of EdinburghChristian-Doppler-KlinikTokyo Women's Medical UniversityKlinikum HerfordHospital Universitario de la PrincesaUniversitätsklinikum Greifswald der Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität GreifswaldUniversity of Miami Leonard M. Miller School of MedicineUiT The Arctic University of NorwayTulane University School of Public Health and Tropical MedicineClinica Universitaria de NavarraTechnical University of MunichUniversità degli Studi di Napoli Federico IITufts University School of MedicineOspedale Niguarda, MilanUniversity of Washington, SeattleTulane University School of MedicineOsaka University Faculty of MedicineEMGO Institute for Health and Care ResearchGroupe Hospitalier Broca AP-HPFaculty of Medicine, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol UniversityUniversity of Cambridge, Institute of Public HealthMedizinische Universitat InnsbruckGoethe-Universität Frankfurt am MainNational Taiwan UniversityUniversitätsklinikum Hamburg-Eppendorf und Medizinische FakultätUppsala UniversitetAmsterdam UMC - Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamInstituto de Salud Carlos IIIAmsterdam UMC - University of AmsterdamUniversity Paris_Sud XiBenedictus Hospital Tutzing & FeldafingParcelsus Medical UniversityImagelabonline & CardiovascularSHIP/Clinical-Epidemiological ResearchUniversity Medicine GreifswaldBassini HospitalInstitut für Medizinische Biometrie2019-08-232019-08-232018-04-01PLoS ONE. Vol.13, No.4 (2018)193262032-s2.0-85045439183https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/44792© 2018 Lorenz et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.Mahidol UniversityAgricultural and Biological SciencesBiochemistry, Genetics and Molecular BiologyArticleSCOPUS10.1371/journal.pone.0191172