The Determinant of stock investment by foreign investors : a case study of emerging stock markets in Asia.

Abstract

This research analyzes factors that influence stock investment by foreign investors,focusing on stock trading behaviors of foreign investors in the Asian emerging stock markets which are Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, India and Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to investigate a relationship between stock trading behaviors of foreign investors in the Asian emerging markets and changes in the MSCI Index, a benchmark developed for investors around the world to use as a standard in measuring investment returns in different regions. In this study, MSCI North America, which indicates market conditions of major stock markets in North America, has been adopted. The relationship may exist due to the role of international funds, especially an increasing size & number the Hedge Fund in the global financial system. Therefore the relationship between stock trading behaviors of foreign investors in the Asian emerging markets and changes in the MSCI Index can be explained by the fact that foreign investors need to sell stock in emerging markets after they sustain losses from their investments in major markets to compensate the lack of liquidity. On the contrary, foreign investors resume their investments in the Asian emerging markets when their accumulated returns in major markets are positive. Analyses by two econometrics models show that changes in accumulated returns of MSCI North America statistically influence trading behaviors of foreign investors in emerging markets in terms of net foreign outflow on the following day and the probability to sell stock in several countries in the emerging markets simultaneously on the following day. In other words, if the accumulated returns of MSCI North America are highly negative, the net foreign outflow in emerging markets will be highly positive (model 1) or the probability of investors selling stock simultaneously in many countries (model 2) on the following day will be high. In contrast, if the accumulated returns of MSCI North America are highly positive, the net foreign inflow in emerging markets will be highly positive (model 1) or the probability of investors buying stock simultaneously in many countries (model 2) on the following day will be high.Findings show that changes in market conditions of major stock markets influence stock trading behaviors of foreign investors on Asian emerging markets.