หลักการพื้นฐานและการสร้างแบบจำลองแบบแบ่งส่วนในงานด้านวิทยาการระบาดโรคสัตว์สู่คนในประเทศไทย

Abstract

More than 75% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonosis. Therefore, comprehension on mechanisms of disease transmission within animal and human populations and among these populations is vitally important. Mathematical models have been developed to simulate how infectious diseases occur and spread as well as effectiveness of related control measures. Compartmental model is one of the most common infectious disease models, for example, SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model. The model is adjustable to the interested factors and dynamics of disease spread. Thus, fundamental data on the occurrence and propagation of disease directly affect model accuracy. To control model complexity, compartmental model is, however, based on multiple basic assumptions. In Thailand, zoonotic models were constructed for some diseases such as avian influenza and leptospirosis. Nevertheless, these models were limitedly developed and lack of policy application. Model translation and communication are crucial to let the model guide interventions for disease control and prevention.