Journal Issue: EnNRJ Vol. 19 No. 4
Issued Date
2021
Resource Type
Language
tha
eng
eng
File Type
application/pdf
Access Rights
open access
Rights
ผลงานนี้เป็นลิขสิทธิ์ของมหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล ขอสงวนไว้สำหรับเพื่อการศึกษาเท่านั้น ต้องอ้างอิงแหล่งที่มา ห้ามดัดแปลงเนื้อหา และห้ามนำไปใช้เพื่อการค้า
Rights Holder(s)
Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies Mahidol University
Journal Volume
EnNRJ Volume 19
(2021)
Articles
Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand
(2561) Allan Sriratana Tabucanon; Areeya Rittima; Detchasit Raveephinit; Yutthana Phankamolsil; Wudhichart Sawangphol; Jidapa Kraisangka; Yutthana Talaluxmana; Varawoot Vudhivanich; Wenchao Xue; Mahidol University. Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies; Mahidol University. Faculty of Engineering; Mahidol University. Faculty of Information and Communication Technology; Kasetsart University. Faculty of Engineering; Kasetsart University. Faculty of Engineering at Kamphaeng; Asian Institute of Technology. Department of Energy Environment and Climate Change
Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules.
Title
EnNRJ Vol. 19 No. 4
Author's Affiliation
Mahidol University. Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies
มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล. คณะสิ่งแวดล้อมและทรัพยากรศาสตร์
มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล. คณะสิ่งแวดล้อมและทรัพยากรศาสตร์
Keyword(s)
Climate change
Biodiversity
Disaster
Ecological
Environmental modelling
Environmental dynamics
Environmental pollution
Emerging contaminants
Transboundary pollution
Waste and wastewater treatments
Hazardous wastes
Natural resource management
Multidisciplinary sciences
Environment and Natural Resources Journal
Biodiversity
Disaster
Ecological
Environmental modelling
Environmental dynamics
Environmental pollution
Emerging contaminants
Transboundary pollution
Waste and wastewater treatments
Hazardous wastes
Natural resource management
Multidisciplinary sciences
Environment and Natural Resources Journal