Journal Issue:
EnNRJ Vol. 24 No. 1

3

Issued Date

2026

Resource Type

Journal Issue

Language

tha
eng

File Type

application/pdf

Access Rights

open access

Rights

ผลงานนี้เป็นลิขสิทธิ์ของมหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล ขอสงวนไว้สำหรับเพื่อการศึกษาเท่านั้น ต้องอ้างอิงแหล่งที่มา ห้ามดัดแปลงเนื้อหา และห้ามนำไปใช้เพื่อการค้า

Rights Holder(s)

Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies Mahidol University

Journal Volume

Articles

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PublicationOpen Access
Scenario-Based Land Cover and Land Use Change Modeling in Mae Chang Watershed, Lampang Province, Thailand
(2026) Sirasit Vongvassana; Sura Pattanakiat; Allan Sriratana Tabucanon; Theerawut Chiyanon; Pisut Nakmuenwai; Siam Lawawirojwong; Warin Boonriam; Pathomphot Chinsawadphan; Thamarat Phutthai
The Mae Chang watershed is part of the headwaters of the Wang River, located in Lampang Province in Northern Thailand. Resource pressures at forest-agriculture-extractive frontiers make this landscape crucial for studying land-habitat conversion and guiding sustainable land-use planning. Thus, this study interpreted LULC (1989, 2005, 2013, 2021) and projected LULC for 2029 and 2037 under BAU, conservation (CON), and development (DEV) scenarios using TerrSet’s LCM-MLP with local drivers, isolating intervention effects by contrasting CON/DEV (with constraint and incentive (CI) layers) against BAU (no CI). From 1989 to 2021, deciduous forest declined 23.3% (-249.01 km²), from 1,070.41 to 821.40 km² (65.40→50.18% of the watershed; -15.2 percentage points), while field crops increased by 104.7%, perennial crops by 97.3%, mines/pits by 240.8%, and urban areas by 28.8% based on human activity. Sub-model accuracies ranged 53-92%, and validation achieved Kstandard 0.824, Kno 0.861, Klocation 0.893, exceeding the success threshold. The three future scenarios yielded similar projected areas in both 2029 and 2037 but there were location differences. The deciduous forest area in 2029 and 2037 declined by 22.3% and 31.5%, respectively for all scenarios compared with 2021. The CON scenario outperformed BAU/DEV because strict no-conversion constraints in protected forests and restricted area effectively prevent ongoing deforestation, offering a practical simulation-based tool to support and implement land-use policies at local and regional scales. These findings provide a validated, transferable framework that isolates policy effects and supports evidence-based land-use planning in tropical headwatersheds.

Title

EnNRJ Vol. 24 No. 1

Author's Affiliation

Mahidol University. Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies
มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล. คณะสิ่งแวดล้อมและทรัพยากรศาสตร์

Keyword(s)

Climate change
 Biodiversity
 Disaster
 Ecological
 Environmental modelling
 Environmental dynamics
 Environmental pollution
 Emerging contaminants
 Transboundary pollution
 Waste and wastewater treatments
 Hazardous wastes
 Natural resource management
 Multidisciplinary sciences
 Environment and Natural Resources Journal

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EnNRJ-Issue