A one-year effective reproduction number of the 2014–2015 Ebola outbreaks in the widespread West African countries and quantitative evaluation of air travel restriction measure

Abstract

© 2016 Elsevier Ltd Background The 2014–2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the largest and longest Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in the history, and the virus has escaped across countries and continents via air travel in this outbreak. Method The interpolated data from WHO Ebola situation reports were used to estimate number of weekly infectious individuals and daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. A stochastic dynamic model was performed to estimate the risk of EVD importation into the top 20 final destination countries of air travelers departing from within the three epidemic countries, and the effectiveness of air travel restriction was subsequently evaluated. Results The daily Rt was estimated at 0.72–1.32 in Guinea, 0.62–1.38 in Liberia and 0.81–1.38 in Sierra Leone. The peak of EVD importation probability was observed in early November 2014 and the restriction of air travel may mitigate the risk up to 67.7% (95% CI 66.6–68.7). Conclusions Our results suggest that restriction of air travels is effective in reducing the risk of EVD importation but controlling of the virus at the original affected countries is vitally more important for preventing inter-terrestrial dissemination of EVD.