Publication: Predicting the future trend of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Thailand: Assessing the impact of control strategies
Issued Date
2004-09-01
Resource Type
ISSN
01251562
Other identifier(s)
2-s2.0-8444243383
Rights
Mahidol University
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health. Vol.35, No.3 (2004), 649-656
Suggested Citation
Hiroshi Nishiura, Kot Patanarapelert, I. Ming Tang Predicting the future trend of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Thailand: Assessing the impact of control strategies. Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health. Vol.35, No.3 (2004), 649-656. Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/21555
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Journal Issue
Thesis
Title
Predicting the future trend of drug-resistant tuberculosis in Thailand: Assessing the impact of control strategies
Author(s)
Abstract
The purposes of this study are to predict the future trend of drug-sensitive and resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Thailand, and to assess the impact of different control strategies on the generation of drug resistant TB, through the use of mathematical analysis. We assume that the present status of TB and the emergence of drug-resistant TB in Thailand are the consequence of past epidemics. Control strategies in the model are defined by specifying the value of the effective treatment rate (baseline value = 0.74) and the relative treatment efficacy (baseline value = 0.84). It is predicted that the total number of new TB cases would continue to decrease at the current level of intervention. Although a dramatic decline in the incidence rate of drug-sensitive cases is expected, drug-resistant cases are predicted to increase gradually, so that more than half of the TB strains would not be drug-sensitive after 2020. The prediction is not greatly altered by improving the interventions. They could, however, delay the emergence of drug-resistant strains for a few years. Our study demonstrates it would be impossible to avoid the continued emergence of drug-resistant TB in the future. It is pointed out that there are urgent needs to ensure adequate supervision and monitoring, to insure treatment of 100% of the targeted population with Directly Observed Therapy.