Impact of economic fluctuation and 1997 Thailand economic crisis on cirrhosis cause of death

Abstract

This study examines the impact of economic fluctuation and 1997 Thailand economic crisis on cirrhosis cause of death among patients during 1980-2000. Materials and methods are time series data from Public Health Statistics and data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which are investigated through Distributed Lag Model. The unit of analysis is year which consisted of 21 years. Samples are divided into two groups as people in working age (15-59 years old) and people in old age group (60 and over). The results show that short impact of present year economic crisis (Lag0) did not directly generate dead cases by cirrhosis among patients in both working age and old age groups significantly ( working age group Lag0: ß = 0.039, S.E = .005; old age group Lag0: ß = 0.057, S.E = .004). Rather, the most influences were among one and two years (working age group Lag1: ? = -0.016, S.E = .008; old age group Lag1: ß = -0.021, S.E = .006); (working age group Lag2, ß = -0.007, S.E = .005; old age group Lag2: ß = -0.011, S.E = .004) afterward which are the long-run impact. Interestingly, the1997 economic crisis generated positive direction of death in working age group but being negative in old age group. This phenomenon can be explained by the fact that there were not many people in working age group who died due to cirrhosis disease during the economic recession year which is similar to the impact of Lag0. Besides, it has had a negative impact on the number of dying by this cause of death on the old age group in the later one and two years, which is similar to Lag1 and Lag2. That is to say, the short-run economic crisis strongly generated long-run impact to patients in both working age and in old age groups. The 1997 crisis had not affected only the national macro economy but it also generated death for population at micro level.