Decarbonization action plans using hybrid modeling for a low-carbon society: The case of Bangkok Metropolitan Area

Abstract

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd This study presents a new approach, using a hybrid model, to analyze the technical carbon mitigation potential and propose decarbonization action plans, for the Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA), Thailand. A complete sectoral analysis was performed to show how a low-carbon society (LCS) could be developed by adopting various countermeasures. Energy service demand and carbon mitigation policy plans for the BMA are presented. The Bilan Carbone model—scenario-based modeling—was used for the first time for such an application. Bilan Carbone functions through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) which provides a systematic methodology for combining inputs with cost/benefit information and stakeholder views, to rank policy alternatives. The base year was 2015 and the target year 2050, for the mitigation potential scenario analysis. The results show that the CO2emissions in the city will increase from 43 MtCO2e in 2015 to 149 MtCO2e in 2050. The largest potential for CO2emission reduction is in the industrial sector (13%) and least potential is found in the “others” sector (4%), but these could all be achieved through energy-efficiency improvements. The BMA can be a low-carbon society by following the optimal solutions provided under the 2050 LCS scenario and can lower emissions by 50% compared to the 2050 BAU scenario. A carbon mitigation policy action framework was designed, with 9 policy action plans detailing all the low-carbon countermeasures and roadmaps to a low-carbon society. Such quantification at the city level may help policy makers in managing energy issues and implementation of climate-change mitigation strategies.