Inter-annual and multi-decadal variability of monsoon season rainfall in central Thailand during the period 1804–1999, as inferred from tree ring oxygen isotopes

Abstract

© 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Long-term records of precipitation in Thailand are necessary to evaluate the robustness of the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and rainfall. This study presents a tree ring-cellulose oxygen isotope (δ18O) record, based on Pinus merkusii, for the period 1804–1999 in Thailand. Response and spatial correlation analyses reveal that tree ring δ18O is significantly correlated with regional monsoon season (May–October) precipitation. Tree ring δ18O, which explains 50.1% of the variability in regional precipitation, was employed to reconstruct monsoon season rainfall back to 1804. Relatively wet periods occurred in 1809–1821, 1876–1882, 1897–1908, and 1944–1975, while the periods 1825–1850, 1913–1925, and 1979–1997 were relatively dry. During the periods 1854–1930 and 1970–1999, inter-annual variability of precipitation was modulated by the ENSO. In contrast, the absence of this relationship between 1930 and 1970 might relate to the reduced variance of ENSO.