Effects of the proportion of high-risk patients and control strategies on the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in an intensive care unit

Abstract

© 2019 The Author(s). Background: The presence of nosocomial pathogens in many intensive care units poses a threat to patients and public health worldwide. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is an important pathogen endemic in many hospital settings. Patients who are colonized with MRSA may develop an infection that can complicate their prior illness. Methods: A mathematical model to describe transmission dynamics of MRSA among high-risk and low-risk patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) via hands of health care workers is developed. We aim to explore the effects of the proportion of high-risk patients, the admission proportions of colonized and infected patients, the probability of developing an MRSA infection, and control strategies on MRSA prevalence among patients. Results: The increasing proportion of colonized and infected patients at admission, along with the higher proportion of high-risk patients in an ICU, may significantly increase MRSA prevalence. In addition, the prevalence becomes higher if patients in the high-risk group are more likely to develop an MRSA infection. Our results also suggest that additional infection prevention and control measures targeting high-risk patients may considerably help reduce MRSA prevalence as compared to those targeting low-risk patients. Conclusions: The proportion of high-risk patients and the proportion of colonized and infected patients in the high-risk group at admission may play an important role on MRSA prevalence. Control strategies targeting high-risk patients may help reduce MRSA prevalence.