Publication: The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand
Issued Date
2021-12-01
Resource Type
ISSN
20452322
Other identifier(s)
2-s2.0-85100111480
Rights
Mahidol University
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Scientific Reports. Vol.11, No.1 (2021)
Suggested Citation
Sudarat Chadsuthi, Karine Chalvet-Monfray, Anuwat Wiratsudakul, Charin Modchang The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand. Scientific Reports. Vol.11, No.1 (2021). doi:10.1038/s41598-020-79546-x Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/79273
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Title
The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand
Abstract
The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.