Publication: Assessment of the Potential Climate Change on Rice Yield in Lower Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar Using EPIC Model
Issued Date
2018
Resource Type
Language
eng
File Type
application/pdf
Journal Title
Environment and Natural Resources Journal
Volume
16
Issue
2
Start Page
45
End Page
57
Access Rights
open access
Rights
ผลงานนี้เป็นลิขสิทธิ์ของมหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล ขอสงวนไว้สำหรับเพื่อการศึกษาเท่านั้น ต้องอ้างอิงแหล่งที่มา ห้ามดัดแปลงเนื้อหา และห้ามนำไปใช้เพื่อการค้า
Rights Holder(s)
Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies Mahidol University.
Bibliographic Citation
Environment and Natural Resources Journal. Vol. 16, No. 2 (Jul - Dec 2018), 45-57
Suggested Citation
Naw Mar Lar, Noppol Arunrat, Soe Tint, Nathsuda Pumijumnong Assessment of the Potential Climate Change on Rice Yield in Lower Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar Using EPIC Model. Environment and Natural Resources Journal. Vol. 16, No. 2 (Jul - Dec 2018), 45-57. 57. Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/114028
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Authors
Journal Issue
EnNRJ Vol. 16 No. 2
(2018)
Thesis
Title
Assessment of the Potential Climate Change on Rice Yield in Lower Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar Using EPIC Model
Abstract
Climate change has been occurring and its consequences are a threat to rice production and hence food security. In this study, the effect of climate change on rice yield has been assessed by using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model under climate change scenarios RCP4.5 (medium emissions) and RCP8.5 (high emissions) and to propose alternative adaptive measures for farmers’ livelihoods in the lower Ayeyarwady Delta. The results show that the average yield increase of early rice are 11.84% and 7.56% and the average yield reduction of late rice are 37.37% and 50.89% under both scenarios. The study found that rice yield reduction will be significantly higher under the RCP8.5 than that of RCP4.5 for both rice. Yield reductions are attributed to increases in mean maximum and minimum temperatures and variation in rainfall pattern. The model result suggests that changing the sowing date is a good option for compensating the future rice yield reduction. The other adaptations that offset the rice yield response to climate change include providing farming machines, irrigation facilities, improving infrastructure, improvement in cultivars that resist disease, pest and drought, better weather forecast and extension systems.