Publication: Estimating the number of farms experienced foot and mouth disease outbreaks using capture-recapture methods
Issued Date
2021-12-01
Resource Type
ISSN
15737438
00494747
00494747
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2-s2.0-85096303970
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Mahidol University
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SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Tropical Animal Health and Production. Vol.53, No.1 (2021)
Suggested Citation
Chalutwan Sansamur, Anuwat Wiratsudakul, Arisara Charoenpanyanet, Veerasak Punyapornwithaya Estimating the number of farms experienced foot and mouth disease outbreaks using capture-recapture methods. Tropical Animal Health and Production. Vol.53, No.1 (2021). doi:10.1007/s11250-020-02452-x Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/75537
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Title
Estimating the number of farms experienced foot and mouth disease outbreaks using capture-recapture methods
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Abstract
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is recognized as an endemic disease in Thailand and throughout other countries in Southeast Asia. The underreporting of FMD outbreaks has affected the true status of the disease. This study aimed to determine the number of dairy farms in Chiang Mai that had experienced FMD outbreaks (FMD outbreak farm) during 2015–2016 using capture-recapture (CR) methods. Two independent FMD outbreak data sources including data from the livestock authorities and survey questionnaires were analyzed using Chapman estimator and Chao estimator. Results showed that the estimated number of FMD outbreak farms was 264 (95% CI = 250, 277) and 273 (95% CI = 259, 292) farms based on the Chapman estimator and Chao estimator, respectively. The estimated prevalence of FMD corresponding to the Chapman estimator was lower than the Chao estimator. The active approach of the survey method offered a higher degree of sensitivity compared to the passive method used by the livestock authorities. Estimations from the CR method provided an upper bound for the true number of outbreak farms. This study demonstrated the use of the CR method to estimate the true status of FMD outbreaks. Our proposed approach can potentially be used as a tool to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of established monitoring and surveillance systems.