Publication:
Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

Issued Date

2018-06-01

Resource Type

Article

ISSN

14643685
03005771

DOI

10.1093/ije/dyy016

Other identifier(s)

2-s2.0-85050702158

Rights

Mahidol University

Rights Holder(s)

SCOPUS

Bibliographic Citation

International Journal of Epidemiology. Vol.47, No.3 (2018), 872-883i

Suggested Citation

Majid Ezzati, Bin Zhou, James Bentham, Mariachiara Di Cesare, Honor Bixby, Goodarz Danaei, Kaveh Hajifathalian, Cristina Taddei, Rodrigo M. Carrillo-Larco, Shirin Djalalinia, Shahab Khatibzadeh, Charles Lugero, Niloofar Peykari, Wan Zhu Zhang, James Bennett, Ver Bilano, Gretchen A. Stevens, Melanie J. Cowan, Leanne M. Riley, Zhengming Chen, Ian R. Hambleton, Rod T. Jackson, Andre Pascal Kengne, Young Ho Khang, Avula Laxmaiah, Jing Liu, Reza Malekzadeh, Hannelore K. Neuhauser, Maroje Sorić, Gregor Starc, Johan Sundström, Mark Woodward, Leandra Abarca-Gómez, Ziad A. Abdeen, Niveen M. Abu-Rmeileh, Benjamin Acosta-Cazares, Robert J. Adams, Wichai Aekplakorn, Kaosar Afsana, Carlos A. Aguilar-Salinas, Charles Agyemang, Noor Ani Ahmad, Alireza Ahmadvand, Wolfgang Ahrens, Kamel Ajlouni, Nazgul Akhtaeva, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Mohamed M. Ali, Osman Ali, Ala'a Alkerwi, Eman Aly, Deepak N. Amarapurkar, Philippe Amouyel, Antoinette Amuzu, Lars Bo Andersen, Sigmund A. Anderssen, Lars H. Ängquist, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Daniel Ansong, Hajer Aounallah-Skhiri, Joana Araújo, Inger Ariansen, Tahir Aris, Nimmathota Arlappa, Dominique Arveiler, Krishna K. Aryal, Thor Aspelund, Felix K. Assah, Maria Cecília F. Assunção, Macria Avdicová, Ana Azevedo, Fereidoun Azizi, Bontha V. Babu, Suhad Bahijri, Nagalla Balakrishna, Mohamed Bamoshmoosh, Maciej Banach, Piotr Bandosz, José R. Banegas, Carlo M. Barbagallo, Alberto Barceló, Amina Barkat, Aluisio J.D. Barros, Mauro V. Barros, Iqbal Bata, Anwar M. Batieha, Assembekov Batyrbek, Louise A. Baur, Robert Beaglehole, Habiba Ben Romdhane, Mikhail Benet, Lowell S. Benson, Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz, Gailute Bernotiene, Heloisa Bettiol, Aroor Bhagyalaxmi, Sumit Bharadwaj, Santosh K. Bhargava, Yufang Bi, Mukharram Bikbov Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants. International Journal of Epidemiology. Vol.47, No.3 (2018), 872-883i. doi:10.1093/ije/dyy016 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/46660

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Title

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

Author(s)

Majid Ezzati
 Bin Zhou
 James Bentham
 Mariachiara Di Cesare
 Honor Bixby
 Goodarz Danaei
 Kaveh Hajifathalian
 Cristina Taddei
 Rodrigo M. Carrillo-Larco
 Shirin Djalalinia
 Shahab Khatibzadeh
 Charles Lugero
 Niloofar Peykari
 Wan Zhu Zhang
 James Bennett
 Ver Bilano
 Gretchen A. Stevens
 Melanie J. Cowan
 Leanne M. Riley
 Zhengming Chen
 Ian R. Hambleton
 Rod T. Jackson
 Andre Pascal Kengne
 Young Ho Khang
 Avula Laxmaiah
 Jing Liu
 Reza Malekzadeh
 Hannelore K. Neuhauser
 Maroje Sorić
 Gregor Starc
 Johan Sundström
 Mark Woodward
 Leandra Abarca-Gómez
 Ziad A. Abdeen
 Niveen M. Abu-Rmeileh
 Benjamin Acosta-Cazares
 Robert J. Adams
 Wichai Aekplakorn
 Kaosar Afsana
 Carlos A. Aguilar-Salinas
 Charles Agyemang
 Noor Ani Ahmad
 Alireza Ahmadvand
 Wolfgang Ahrens
 Kamel Ajlouni
 Nazgul Akhtaeva
 Rajaa Al-Raddadi
 Mohamed M. Ali
 Osman Ali
 Ala'a Alkerwi
 Eman Aly
 Deepak N. Amarapurkar
 Philippe Amouyel
 Antoinette Amuzu
 Lars Bo Andersen
 Sigmund A. Anderssen
 Lars H. Ängquist
 Ranjit Mohan Anjana
 Daniel Ansong
 Hajer Aounallah-Skhiri
 Joana Araújo
 Inger Ariansen
 Tahir Aris
 Nimmathota Arlappa
 Dominique Arveiler
 Krishna K. Aryal
 Thor Aspelund
 Felix K. Assah
 Maria Cecília F. Assunção
 Macria Avdicová
 Ana Azevedo
 Fereidoun Azizi
 Bontha V. Babu
 Suhad Bahijri
 Nagalla Balakrishna
 Mohamed Bamoshmoosh
 Maciej Banach
 Piotr Bandosz
 José R. Banegas
 Carlo M. Barbagallo
 Alberto Barceló
 Amina Barkat
 Aluisio J.D. Barros
 Mauro V. Barros
 Iqbal Bata
 Anwar M. Batieha
 Assembekov Batyrbek
 Louise A. Baur
 Robert Beaglehole
 Habiba Ben Romdhane
 Mikhail Benet
 Lowell S. Benson
 Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz
 Gailute Bernotiene
 Heloisa Bettiol
 Aroor Bhagyalaxmi
 Sumit Bharadwaj
 Santosh K. Bhargava
 Yufang Bi
 Mukharram Bikbov

Other Contributor(s)

Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology
 Western Norway University of Applied Sciences
 Lietuvos sveikatos mokslų universitetas
 Kazakh National Medical University
 University of Lille
 B. J. Medical College, Ahmedabad
 Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social
 Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine
 Beijing Anzhen Hospital
 Birzeit University
 Luxembourg Institute of Health
 Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital
 Mulago Hospital
 The University of the West Indies
 Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia
 Haskoli Islands
 Université de Yaoundé I
 Jordan University of Science and Technology
 University of Tunis El Manar
 Harvard School of Public Health
 Al-Quds University
 London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
 University of Ljubljana
 South African Medical Research Council
 University of New South Wales (UNSW) Australia
 Tehran University of Medical Sciences
 Organisation Mondiale de la Santé
 University of Oxford
 Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
 The University of Sydney
 Indian Council of Medical Research
 University of Utah, School of Medicine
 Universidade de Pernambuco
 Shiraz University of Medical Sciences
 Cleveland Clinic Foundation
 Mohammed V University in Rabat
 Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
 Universiti Malaysia Sabah
 Università degli Studi di Palermo
 National Institute of Nutrition India
 Brandeis University
 Robert Koch Institut
 Dalhousie University
 Imperial College London
 Universidade Federal de Pelotas
 Middlesex University
 Pan American Health Organization
 Seoul National University
 Kementerian Kesihatan Malaysia
 Mahidol University
 Gdanski Uniwersytet Medyczny
 Norwegian Institute of Public Health
 Bombay Hospital and Medical Research Centre
 University of Kent
 The University of Adelaide
 Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición Salvador Zubiran
 Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social
 University of Zagreb
 Universidade de Sao Paulo - USP
 Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education
 Universidade do Porto
 Medical University of Lodz
 University of Auckland
 King Abdulaziz University
 Norges idrettshøgskole
 Uppsala Universitet
 University of Amsterdam
 Madras Diabetes Research Foundation
 National Center for Diabetes and Endocrinology
 CAFAM University Foundation
 German Center for Cardiovascular Research
 SL Jain Hospital
 Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center
 Strasbourg University and Hospital
 Chirayu Medical College
 Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospitals
 Uganda Heart Institute
 National Institute of Public Health
 BRAC
 Nepal Health Research Council
 Regional Authority of Public Health
 Ufa Eye Research Institute
 University of Science and Technology

Abstract

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.

Keyword(s)

Medicine

Availability

URI

https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/46660

Collections

Scopus 2018