The development and validation of a diabetes risk score for high-risk Thai adults

Abstract

Objective: To develop a simple risk score to identify high-risk individuals for diabetes screening in Thailand. Material and Method: The authors analyzed data from 75-g oral glucose tolerance tests performed in 159 males and 270 females, aged 48.4 ± 10.9 years. Results: The independent variables associated with diabetes included age (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.01) and known history of hypertension (HHT) (p < 0.01). The risk equation was Y = 3age + 5BMI +50HHT. At the cut-off Y value of 240, the sensitivity and specificity for having diabetes were 96.8% and 24.0%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 17.8% and the negative predictive value was 97.8%. Using the equation in a validation group comprising 1617 subjects, it was found that 560 (34.6%) diabetes screenings could be saved while 28 subjects (12.8%) with diabetes would be missed. Conclusion: The authors have developed a simple risk scoring method that should be helpful in decreasing the number of unnecessary screening and optimizing the costs associated with diabetes screening.