Publication: Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand
Issued Date
2012
Resource Type
Language
eng
Rights
Mahidol university
Bibliographic Citation
WHO South-East Asia Journal of Public Health. Vol.1, No.1 (2012), 59-68
Suggested Citation
Aronrag Meeyai, Ben Cooper, Richard Coker, Wirichada Pan-ngum, Pasakorn Akarasewi, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, อรุณรักษ์ คูเปอร์ มีใย Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand. WHO South-East Asia Journal of Public Health. Vol.1, No.1 (2012), 59-68. Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/2570
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Authors
Journal Issue
Thesis
Title
Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand
Corresponding Author(s)
Abstract
Background: Developing a quantitative understanding of pandemic influenza dynamics in South-
East Asia is important for informing future pandemic planning. Hence, transmission dynamics of
influenza A/H1N1 were determined across space and time in Thailand.
Methods: Dates of symptom onset were obtained for all daily laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza
A/H1N1pdm in Thailand from 3 May 2009 to 26 December 2010 for four different geographic
regions (Central, North, North-East, and South). These data were analysed using a probabilistic
epidemic reconstruction, and estimates of the effective reproduction number, R(t), were derived
by region and over time.
Results: Estimated R(t) values for the first wave peaked at 1.54 (95% CI: 1.42-1.71) in the Central
region and 1.64 (95% CI: 1.38-1.92) in the North, whilst the corresponding values in the North-East
and the South were 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17-1.46) and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.32-1.45) respectively. As the
R(t) in the Central region fell below one, the value of R(t) in the rest of Thailand increased above
one. R(t) was above one for 30 days continuously through the first wave in all regions of Thailand.
During the second wave R(t) was only marginally above one in all regions except the South.
Conclusions: In Thailand, the value of R(t) varied by region in the two pandemic waves. Higher
R(t) estimates were found in Central and Northern regions in the first wave. Knowledge of regional
variation in transmission potential is needed for predicting the course of future pandemics and for
analysing the potential impact of control measures.
Sponsorship
This research project was supported by the National Science and Technology Development
Agency (NSTDA), Thailand.