Estimation of Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Spread Patterns in Thailand

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and was declared as a pandemic. The purpose of this study was to estimation the reproduction number of COVID-19 Spread Patterns by using the data from 22 January to 30 June 2020. We applied the exponential growth rate to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) according to the status of lockdown. The exponential growth model results during lockdown period indicate the basic reproduction number is 0.58 (95% CI: 0.55-0.60), whereas the basic reproduction number is 0.98 during easing of lockdown. The highest value of the basic reproduction number is 2.48 (95% CI: 2.21-2.77) during pre-lockdown phase II. The reduction of basic reproduction numbers (R0). suggested that timely implementation of control measures. The estimation of reproduction numbers could be used to analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of control measures and also used as a guide for public health policymakers for future COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, with COVID-19 cases still present in Thailand, an estimation of basic reproduction number (R0) would be helpful for continuous monitoring of the effectiveness of the current public health policies implemented in Thailand.