Publication: Fewer Cancer Cases in 4 Countries of the WHO European Region in 2018 through Increased Alcohol Excise Taxation: A Modelling Study
Issued Date
2021-05-01
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ISSN
14219891
10226877
10226877
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2-s2.0-85095569937
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Mahidol University
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SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
European Addiction Research. Vol.27, No.3 (2021), 189-197
Suggested Citation
Pol Rovira, Carolin Kilian, Maria Neufeld, Harriet Rumgay, Isabelle Soerjomataram, Carina Ferreira-Borges, Kevin D. Shield, Bundit Sornpaisarn, Jürgen Rehm Fewer Cancer Cases in 4 Countries of the WHO European Region in 2018 through Increased Alcohol Excise Taxation: A Modelling Study. European Addiction Research. Vol.27, No.3 (2021), 189-197. doi:10.1159/000511899 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/78274
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Title
Fewer Cancer Cases in 4 Countries of the WHO European Region in 2018 through Increased Alcohol Excise Taxation: A Modelling Study
Other Contributor(s)
Agencia de Salut Publica de Barcelona
International Agency for Research on Cancer
Technische Universität Dresden
University of Toronto
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health
Mahidol University
Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University
WHO European Office for Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases
International Agency for Research on Cancer
Technische Universität Dresden
University of Toronto
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health
Mahidol University
Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University
WHO European Office for Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases
Abstract
Introduction: Prevention of cancer has been identified as a major public health priority for Europe, and alcohol is a leading risk factor for various types of cancer. This contribution estimates the number of cancer cases that could have potentially been averted in 2018 in 4 European countries if an increase in alcohol excise taxation had been applied. Methods: Current country and beverage-specific excise taxation of 4 member states of the WHO European Region (Germany, Italy, Kazakhstan, and Sweden) was used as a baseline, and the potential impacts of increases of 20, 50, and 100% to current excise duties were modelled. A sensitivity analysis was performed, replacing the current tax rates in the 4 countries by those levied in Finland. The resulting increase in tax was assumed to be fully incorporated into the consumer price, and beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were obtained from meta-analyses, assuming less elasticity for heavy drinkers. Model estimates were applied to cancer incidence rates for the year 2018. Results: In the 4 countries, >35,000 cancer cases in 2018 were caused by alcohol consumption, with the highest rate of alcohol-attributable cancers recorded in Germany and the lowest in Sweden. An increase in excise duties on alcohol would have significantly reduced these numbers, with between 3 and 7% of all alcohol-attributable cancer cases being averted if taxation had been increased by 100%. If the 4 countries were to adopt an excise taxation level equivalent to the one currently imposed in Finland, an even higher proportion of alcohol-attributable cancers could be avoided, with Germany alone experiencing 1,600 fewer cancer cases in 1 year. Discussion/Conclusion: Increasing excise duties can markedly reduce cancer incidence in European countries.