Journal Issue:
EnNRJ Vol. 16 No. 2

Issued Date

2018

Resource Type

Journal Issue

Language

tha
eng

File Type

application/pdf

Access Rights

open access

Rights

ผลงานนี้เป็นลิขสิทธิ์ของมหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล ขอสงวนไว้สำหรับเพื่อการศึกษาเท่านั้น ต้องอ้างอิงแหล่งที่มา ห้ามดัดแปลงเนื้อหา และห้ามนำไปใช้เพื่อการค้า

Rights Holder(s)

Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies Mahidol University

Journal Volume

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Journal Volume
EnNRJ Volume 16
(2018)

Articles

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PublicationOpen Access
Climatic Factors Influencing Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Kolaka District, Indonesia
(2018) Ramadhan Tosepu; Kraichat Tantrakarnapa; Suwalee Worakhunpiset; Kanchana Nakhapakorn
Dengue hemorrhagic fever in Indonesia is one of the serious health problems and requires understanding the occurrence of this disease. Climate Factors have a role that needs attention in the prevention of DHF disease. Understanding of disease patterns will benefit the health surveillance system and provide a way to tackle this problem. The records of dengue fever cases and climate data for the years 2010-2015 were obtained from the Health Office Kolaka District, southeast Sulawesi province and Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency in Southeast Sulawesi province, respectively. Data for the period 2010 to 2014 were used for model development through multiple linear regressions. The prediction model was used to forecast dengue cases in 2015 and the predicted results were compared with reported dengue cases in Kolaka in the past and forecasting period. Rainfall, humidity, temperature average, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature are significantly correlated with monthly cases of dengue fever. Predicted results showed a good performance where the model was able to predict 3 out of 5 epidemic outbreak events that occurred in January-March 2015 and November-December 2015. The sensitivity of detecting the outbreaks was estimated to be 60%, the specificity was 100%, positive and negative predictive value were estimated to be 100% and 77.8%, respectively. Climate has a major influence on the occurrence of dengue hemorrhagic fever infection in Kolaka district. Although the predictive model has some limitations in predicting the number of cases of monthly dengue fever, it can estimate the possibility of an outbreak three months in advance with a fairly high accuracy. The predictive model can be used to explain the incident rate of DHF of approximately 71%.
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PublicationOpen Access
Assessment of the Potential Climate Change on Rice Yield in Lower Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar Using EPIC Model
(2018) Naw Mar Lar; Noppol Arunrat; Soe Tint; Nathsuda Pumijumnong
Climate change has been occurring and its consequences are a threat to rice production and hence food security. In this study, the effect of climate change on rice yield has been assessed by using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model under climate change scenarios RCP4.5 (medium emissions) and RCP8.5 (high emissions) and to propose alternative adaptive measures for farmers’ livelihoods in the lower Ayeyarwady Delta. The results show that the average yield increase of early rice are 11.84% and 7.56% and the average yield reduction of late rice are 37.37% and 50.89% under both scenarios. The study found that rice yield reduction will be significantly higher under the RCP8.5 than that of RCP4.5 for both rice. Yield reductions are attributed to increases in mean maximum and minimum temperatures and variation in rainfall pattern. The model result suggests that changing the sowing date is a good option for compensating the future rice yield reduction. The other adaptations that offset the rice yield response to climate change include providing farming machines, irrigation facilities, improving infrastructure, improvement in cultivars that resist disease, pest and drought, better weather forecast and extension systems.

Title

EnNRJ Vol. 16 No. 2

Author's Affiliation

Mahidol University. Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies
มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล. คณะสิ่งแวดล้อมและทรัพยากรศาสตร์

Keyword(s)

Climate change
 Biodiversity
 Disaster
 Ecological
 Environmental modelling
 Environmental dynamics
 Environmental pollution
 Emerging contaminants
 Transboundary pollution
 Waste and wastewater treatments
 Hazardous wastes
 Natural resource management
 Multidisciplinary sciences
 Environment and Natural Resources Journal

Availability

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EnNRJ-Issue