Demographic changes and economic growth in Macau : the chronological data analysis

Abstract

Macau has experienced dramatic demographic changes in the last few decades. This study was divided into 2 parts. The first objective was to investigate the causes of demographic changes from 1950 to 2021, and the second objective was to examine the impact of demographic changes on Macau’s economic growth from 1982 to 2019. By adopting Bloom and Williamson’s research structure, this study used linear regression method to analyze the data. The results revealed that Macau’s demographic changes were strongly influenced by the external political environment and economic environment. In recent years, the latter had been increasingly significant. Moreover, the 2 regression models were constructed covering the period from 1982 to 2019 and 1992 to 2019. The research presented demographic changes substantially contributed to Macau’s economic growth between 1982 and 2019. The first regression model suggested that a lower sex ratio in the working-age population positively affected the GDP (β=-9.9; p= 0.006, CI=[-16.8, -3.1]). However, there was no outstanding evidence to prove that the increasing female working-age population contributed to the GDP growth (β=-5.4; p = 0.120; CI=[-12.2, 1.5]). The results of the second model indicated that a higher female labor force participation rate had a positive impact on the GDP (β= 6.3; p= 0.010; CI=[1.8, 10.9]), while the male labor force participation rate had the opposite effect (β=-8.0; p= 0.003, CI=[-12.7, -3.2]). The difference in the results of the 2 models implied that women showed an important role in Macau’s economic activity. Policy recommendations related to the results were also proposed in this study. IMPLICATION OF THE THESIS: Given the limited literature on Macau's population, this study presented as the first study adopting mixed methods, combining qualitative and quantitative research methods to study Macau's population and economy. Adopting more variables on sex ratio, especially the sex ratio in the labor force, this study further improved the empirical models in studying the relationships between demographic changes and economic growth from a gender perspective.