Early warning systems for malaria outbreaks in Thailand: an anomaly detection approach
Issued Date
2024-12-01
Resource Type
eISSN
14752875
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85181750278
Pubmed ID
38191421
Journal Title
Malaria Journal
Volume
23
Issue
1
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Malaria Journal Vol.23 No.1 (2024)
Suggested Citation
Srimokla O., Pan-Ngum W., Khamsiriwatchara A., Padungtod C., Tipmontree R., Choosri N., Saralamba S. Early warning systems for malaria outbreaks in Thailand: an anomaly detection approach. Malaria Journal Vol.23 No.1 (2024). doi:10.1186/s12936-024-04837-x Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/95780
Title
Early warning systems for malaria outbreaks in Thailand: an anomaly detection approach
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Background: Malaria continues to pose a significant health threat. Rapid identification of malaria infections and the deployment of active surveillance tools are crucial for achieving malaria elimination in regions where malaria is endemic, such as certain areas of Thailand. In this study, an anomaly detection system is introduced as an early warning mechanism for potential malaria outbreaks in countries like Thailand. Methods: Unsupervised clustering-based, and time series-based anomaly detection algorithms are developed and compared to identify abnormal malaria activity in Thailand. Additionally, a user interface tailored for anomaly detection is designed, enabling the Thai malaria surveillance team to utilize these algorithms and visualize regions exhibiting unusual malaria patterns. Results: Nine distinct anomaly detection algorithms we developed. Their efficacy in pinpointing verified outbreaks was assessed using malaria case data from Thailand spanning 2012 to 2022. The historical average threshold-based anomaly detection method triggered three times fewer alerts, while correctly identifying the same number of verified outbreaks when compared to the current method used in Thailand. A limitation of this analysis is the small number of verified outbreaks; further consultation with the Division of Vector Borne Disease could help identify more verified outbreaks. The developed dashboard, designed specifically for anomaly detection, allows disease surveillance professionals to easily identify and visualize unusual malaria activity at a provincial level across Thailand. Conclusion: An enhanced early warning system is proposed to bolster malaria elimination efforts for countries with a similar malaria profile to Thailand. The developed anomaly detection algorithms, after thorough comparison, have been optimized for integration with the current malaria surveillance infrastructure. An anomaly detection dashboard for Thailand is built and supports early detection of abnormal malaria activity. In summary, the proposed early warning system enhances the identification process for provinces at risk of outbreaks and offers easy integration with Thailand’s established malaria surveillance framework.
