Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors
Issued Date
2026-01-28
Resource Type
eISSN
14712954
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105028813648
Pubmed ID
41592768
Journal Title
Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences
Volume
293
Issue
2063
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Vol.293 No.2063 (2026)
Suggested Citation
Thompson R.N., Bansal S., Clapham H., Dyson L., Gutierrez M.A., Hadley L., Hart W.S., Heesterbeek H., Hollingsworth T.D., House T., Howerton E., Isham V., Lessler J., Leung K., Li X., McBryde E., McCaw J.M., Mollison D., Pan-Ngum W., Parag K., Pellis L., Scarabel F., Swallow B., Thumbi S.M., Tran-Kiem C., Viboud C., Plank M.J. Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors. Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Vol.293 No.2063 (2026). doi:10.1098/rspb.2025.2848 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/114862
Title
Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors
Author(s)
Thompson R.N.
Bansal S.
Clapham H.
Dyson L.
Gutierrez M.A.
Hadley L.
Hart W.S.
Heesterbeek H.
Hollingsworth T.D.
House T.
Howerton E.
Isham V.
Lessler J.
Leung K.
Li X.
McBryde E.
McCaw J.M.
Mollison D.
Pan-Ngum W.
Parag K.
Pellis L.
Scarabel F.
Swallow B.
Thumbi S.M.
Tran-Kiem C.
Viboud C.
Plank M.J.
Bansal S.
Clapham H.
Dyson L.
Gutierrez M.A.
Hadley L.
Hart W.S.
Heesterbeek H.
Hollingsworth T.D.
House T.
Howerton E.
Isham V.
Lessler J.
Leung K.
Li X.
McBryde E.
McCaw J.M.
Mollison D.
Pan-Ngum W.
Parag K.
Pellis L.
Scarabel F.
Swallow B.
Thumbi S.M.
Tran-Kiem C.
Viboud C.
Plank M.J.
Author's Affiliation
University of Oxford
University College London
Imperial College London
University of Melbourne
The University of Manchester
National University of Singapore
The University of Edinburgh
Universiteit Utrecht
University of Leeds
Princeton University
The University of Hong Kong
University of Georgia
University of Auckland
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Washington State University Pullman
University of St Andrews
Georgetown University
University of Canterbury
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
Heriot-Watt University
College of Engineering and Applied Science
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine
Nuffield Department of Medicine
University of Nairobi
Faculty of Mathematics
Melbourne School of Population and Global Health
Burnet Institute
Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit
Carolina Population Center
The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital
Fogarty International Center
Department of Veterinary Medicine
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health
The Hong Kong Jockey Club Global Health Institute
University College London
Imperial College London
University of Melbourne
The University of Manchester
National University of Singapore
The University of Edinburgh
Universiteit Utrecht
University of Leeds
Princeton University
The University of Hong Kong
University of Georgia
University of Auckland
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Washington State University Pullman
University of St Andrews
Georgetown University
University of Canterbury
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
Heriot-Watt University
College of Engineering and Applied Science
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine
Nuffield Department of Medicine
University of Nairobi
Faculty of Mathematics
Melbourne School of Population and Global Health
Burnet Institute
Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit
Carolina Population Center
The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital
Fogarty International Center
Department of Veterinary Medicine
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health
The Hong Kong Jockey Club Global Health Institute
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Early in an infectious disease outbreak, key policy questions include whether and how the outbreak can be brought under control. In the epidemiological modelling literature, analyses of outbreak controllability have often focused on metrics such as reproduction numbers (which quantify the number of infections generated by each infected individual). However, whether an outbreak can be controlled is a complex question, depending on both the precise definition of 'under control' used and numerous factors affecting decision-makers' ability to implement transmission-reducing measures. Here, based on discussions at the Isaac Newton Institute's 'Modelling and inference for pandemic preparedness' programme (5-30 August 2024), we describe a wide range of factors affecting outbreak controllability in practice. Programme participants came from institutions in ten countries, enabling discussions to reflect experiences of using models to inform policy in different settings. We divide the factors according to whether they relate predominantly to characteristics of the pathogen, host population or available interventions, and describe policy considerations when assessing whether an outbreak is controllable.