Predictive accuracy of the h-index in predicting field-weighted citation impact across disciplines

Abstract

This study analyzed bibliometric data to evaluate the predictive accuracy of various author-related characteristics and quality indicators in relation to the field-weighted citation impact (FWCI) of research articles. It especially focused on articles with an FWCI of 1 or above, which is considered at or above the global average. Data were collected from published research articles on the Scopus database between 2019 and 2020 by leading universities in Thailand and Malaysia. Articles were categorized into four groups: Medicine; Environment and Agricultural Sciences; Engineering & Computer Sciences; and Social Sciences, Arts & Humanities. To assess predictive accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was analyzed, and the optimal cut-off point was identified. The AUC results for predicting FWCI based on first authors’ h-index ranged from 0.63 to 0.71, which was similar to predictions of the most impactful authors’ h-index (AUC = 0.62 − 0.69). While the optimal h-index cut-off point for Social Sciences, Arts & Humanities was lower than those for other fields, the optimal cut-off points for first authors and high-impact authors significantly differed. Both were found accurate. The findings indicate that research strategies at the university level should focus on promoting collaboration among high-potential researchers and encouraging emerging researchers to become principal investigators.