Estimating the effect of vaccination on antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever in 73 countries supported by Gavi: a mathematical modelling study
Issued Date
2022-05-01
Resource Type
ISSN
14733099
eISSN
14744457
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85124887202
Pubmed ID
35123673
Journal Title
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Volume
22
Issue
5
Start Page
679
End Page
691
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
The Lancet Infectious Diseases Vol.22 No.5 (2022) , 679-691
Suggested Citation
Birger R., Antillón M., Bilcke J., Dolecek C., Dougan G., Pollard A.J., Neuzil K.M., Frost I., Laxminarayan R., Pitzer V.E. Estimating the effect of vaccination on antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever in 73 countries supported by Gavi: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases Vol.22 No.5 (2022) , 679-691. 691. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00627-7 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/87323
Title
Estimating the effect of vaccination on antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever in 73 countries supported by Gavi: a mathematical modelling study
Author's Affiliation
Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University
NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre
Department of Medicine
Universitat Basel
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
Imperial College London
University of Maryland School of Medicine
Universiteit Antwerpen
Nuffield Department of Medicine
Yale University
Princeton University
University of Oxford Medical Sciences Division
Economics & Policy
NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre
Department of Medicine
Universitat Basel
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
Imperial College London
University of Maryland School of Medicine
Universiteit Antwerpen
Nuffield Department of Medicine
Yale University
Princeton University
University of Oxford Medical Sciences Division
Economics & Policy
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Background: Multidrug resistance and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS) are major concerns for the epidemiology and treatment of typhoid fever. The 2018 prequalification of the first typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) by WHO provides an opportunity to limit the transmission and burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. Methods: We combined output from mathematical models of typhoid transmission with estimates of antimicrobial resistance from meta-analyses to predict the burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever across 73 lower-income countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We considered FQNS and multidrug resistance separately. The effect of vaccination was predicted on the basis of forecasts of vaccine coverage. We explored how the potential effect of vaccination on the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance varied depending on key model parameters. Findings: The introduction of routine immunisation with TCV at age 9 months with a catch-up campaign up to age 15 years was predicted to avert 46–74% of all typhoid fever cases in 73 countries eligible for Gavi support. Vaccination was predicted to reduce the relative prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever by 16% (95% prediction interval [PI] 0–49). TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign was predicted to avert 42·5 million (95% PI 24·8–62·8 million) cases and 506 000 (95% PI 187 000–1·9 million) deaths caused by FQNS typhoid fever, and 21·2 million (95% PI 16·4–26·5 million) cases and 342 000 (95% PI 135 000–1·5 million) deaths from multidrug-resistant typhoid fever over 10 years following introduction. Interpretation: Our results indicate the benefits of prioritising TCV introduction for countries with a high avertable burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
