Nonlinear effects of ICT-trade openness on sustainable energy transition in Bangladesh

Abstract

This study explores the impact of ICT-trade openness on Bangladesh's sustainable energy transition over the period 1991–2023. Sustainable energy transition is conceptualized here as a multidimensional process encompassing renewable energy adoption, energy efficiency improvements, expanded access to clean cooking technologies, and reductions in CO<inf>2</inf> emissions. Motivated by the growing importance of digital integration in low-carbon development, this analysis investigates whether ICT-trade openness facilitates progress across these dimensions. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study captures both short- and long-term nonlinear threshold effects of ICT-trade openness on energy and environmental indicators. The results reveal a nonlinear relationship: moderate levels of ICT trade integration stimulate positive sustainability outcomes, while excessive openness results in diminishing returns due to infrastructural bottlenecks, technological mismatch, and policy fragmentation. The findings also highlight a dual effect on CO<inf>2</inf> emissions—initial increases associated with rising energy demand are mitigated over time through renewable energy integration. These outcomes underscore the importance of strategically managed ICT trade policies that align digital expansion with sustainable energy infrastructure and institutional readiness. The study offers novel empirical insights and actionable policy recommendations for aligning digital globalization with climate and energy goals in developing economies.