Emerging lessons on how participatory scenario planning can support sustainable land management and climate resilience

Abstract

Land degradation, coupled with climate change impacts, poses serious threats to global land health and human well-being. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) has become a key tool for exploring these interconnected challenges; however, its progress and effectiveness remain underexplored. This study reviews 46 papers, using PRISMA guidelines, to investigate how PSP supports sustainable land management and climate resilience. We document how PSP applications have evolved from a biophysical focus to one addressing broader environmental, societal, and economic challenges. Disparities in how participants engage across PSP phases document the need for more equitable and meaningful participation. Clustering future scenarios reveals the complex interconnections among ecological, social, and economic factors underpinning land management and climate resilience, underscoring the need for inclusive and integrated strategies. From the emerging trends, we identify opportunities to advance PSP implementation, including early engagement of decision-makers, balanced representation and equitable power dynamics, meaningful participation, cross-disciplinary collaboration, integration of human–nature relationships, and regular revision of future pathways. Overall, our review highlights PSP's potential to co-create inclusive, equitable scenarios and actionable pathways towards sustainable and resilient land use futures.