Responsive Scenario-based Roadmapping: Applying System Dynamics to Enhance Scenario-based Roadmapping

Abstract

As the business environment has been anticipated to be more dynamic, uncertain, and complex, it is more difficult for technology managers to set up their technology plan or roadmap. The recent research on scenario-based roadmapping aims to enhance the robustness of the TRM process in order to cope with dynamic environments and uncertainties. However, the current practices need to be more responsive to deal with dynamic conditions. This paper proposes the analysis framework of responsive scenario-based roadmapping by integrating system dynamics (SD) into roadmapping process. The SD is for analyzing a complicated system, building scenarios, and making a "responsive"process for scenario-based roadmapping. Moreover, our framework integrates the TRM status signal (STRM), which is essential for evaluating the status of a roadmap. If the impact is severe, the current roadmap needs to be revised. A "step-by-step"approach is provided in this paper. With the proposed approach of responsive scenario-based roadmapping, the process of technology roadmapping will be more responsive to deal with uncertain circumstances, mitigate foreseeable risks, and identify potential opportunities in advance.