Global, regional, and national progress towards the 2030 global nutrition targets and forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Issued Date

2024-12-21

Resource Type

Article

ISSN

01406736

eISSN

1474547X

DOI

10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01821-X

Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85212322880

Pubmed ID

39667386

Journal Title

Lancet

Volume

404

Issue

10471

Start Page

2543

End Page

2583

Rights Holder(s)

SCOPUS

Bibliographic Citation

Lancet Vol.404 No.10471 (2024) , 2543-2583

Suggested Citation

Arndt M.B., Aravkin A.Y., Bhattacharjee N.V., Chalek J., Dai X., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dharmaratne S.D., Farmer S., Feigin V.L., Fitzgerald R., Gakidou E., Gardner W.M., Hagins H., Hay S.I., He J., Humphrey K.M., Lim S.S., Lindstedt P.A., Lo J., Manguerra H., Mestrovic T., Mokdad A.H., Mougin V., Murray C.J.L., Nguyen Q.A.P., Pasovic M., Raggi C., Schneider R.D., Smith A.E., Sorensen R.J.D., Stanaway J.D., Taylor H.J., Vollset S.E., Wolde A.A., Yuan C.W., Zigler B., Kassebaum N.J., Reiner R.C., Iwu C.D., Krishnamoorthy V., Abate Y.H., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Ahmadi A., Sabour S., Ajami M., Hashemi M.B., Doaei S., Ghamari S.H., Khanali J., Rashidi M.M., Gholamalizadeh M., Haj-Mirzaian A., Heidari-Foroozan M., Zangiabadian M., Kashani H.R.K., Rezaee M., Tabatabai S., ElHafeez S.A., Elmeligy O.A.A., Abdelmasseh M., Sanabria J., Abd-Elsalam S., Darwish A.H., Abdulah D.M., Abdulkader R.S., Abidi H., Zoladl M., Abiodun O., Aboagye R.G., Amu H., Tarkang E.E., Immurana M., Alhassan R.K., Abolhassani H., Dadras O., Keykhaei M., Rezaei N., Ghassemi F., Moghaddam S.S., Khanmohammadi S., Shahbandi A., Kompani F., Rad E.M., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Sepanlou S.G., Shafie M., Vahabi S.M., Yazdanpanah F., Ghaffari K., Kauppila J.H., Abtew Y.D., Bekele A., Demissie S., Esubalew H., Wubetie G.A., Abu-Gharbieh E., Arumugam A., Saber-Ayad M.M., Saddik B.A. Global, regional, and national progress towards the 2030 global nutrition targets and forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Vol.404 No.10471 (2024) , 2543-2583. 2583. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01821-X Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/110707

Title

Global, regional, and national progress towards the 2030 global nutrition targets and forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Author(s)

Arndt M.B.
 Aravkin A.Y.
 Bhattacharjee N.V.
 Chalek J.
 Dai X.
 Dandona L.
 Dandona R.
 Dharmaratne S.D.
 Farmer S.
 Feigin V.L.
 Fitzgerald R.
 Gakidou E.
 Gardner W.M.
 Hagins H.
 Hay S.I.
 He J.
 Humphrey K.M.
 Lim S.S.
 Lindstedt P.A.
 Lo J.
 Manguerra H.
 Mestrovic T.
 Mokdad A.H.
 Mougin V.
 Murray C.J.L.
 Nguyen Q.A.P.
 Pasovic M.
 Raggi C.
 Schneider R.D.
 Smith A.E.
 Sorensen R.J.D.
 Stanaway J.D.
 Taylor H.J.
 Vollset S.E.
 Wolde A.A.
 Yuan C.W.
 Zigler B.
 Kassebaum N.J.
 Reiner R.C.
 Iwu C.D.
 Krishnamoorthy V.
 Abate Y.H.
 Abbasi-Kangevari M.
 Ahmadi A.
 Sabour S.
 Ajami M.
 Hashemi M.B.
 Doaei S.
 Ghamari S.H.
 Khanali J.
 Rashidi M.M.
 Gholamalizadeh M.
 Haj-Mirzaian A.
 Heidari-Foroozan M.
 Zangiabadian M.
 Kashani H.R.K.
 Rezaee M.
 Tabatabai S.
 ElHafeez S.A.
 Elmeligy O.A.A.
 Abdelmasseh M.
 Sanabria J.
 Abd-Elsalam S.
 Darwish A.H.
 Abdulah D.M.
 Abdulkader R.S.
 Abidi H.
 Zoladl M.
 Abiodun O.
 Aboagye R.G.
 Amu H.
 Tarkang E.E.
 Immurana M.
 Alhassan R.K.
 Abolhassani H.
 Dadras O.
 Keykhaei M.
 Rezaei N.
 Ghassemi F.
 Moghaddam S.S.
 Khanmohammadi S.
 Shahbandi A.
 Kompani F.
 Rad E.M.
 Rahimi-Movaghar V.
 Sepanlou S.G.
 Shafie M.
 Vahabi S.M.
 Yazdanpanah F.
 Ghaffari K.
 Kauppila J.H.
 Abtew Y.D.
 Bekele A.
 Demissie S.
 Esubalew H.
 Wubetie G.A.
 Abu-Gharbieh E.
 Arumugam A.
 Saber-Ayad M.M.
 Saddik B.A.

Author's Affiliation

Tanta University
 Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center
 Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel
 University of Peradeniya
 University of Washington
 SBUMS Cancer Research Center
 Yasuj University of Medical Sciences
 Non-communicable Diseases Research Center (SUMS)
 Faculty of Dentistry
 University of Washington School of Medicine
 School of Health (GUMS)
 Aleta Wondo Hospital
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
 Khomein University of Medical Sciences
 Research Center of Neurology
 Case Western Reserve University
 Children's Medical Center (TUMS)
 Iranian Research Center for HIV/AIDS
 Public Health Foundation of India
 King Abdulaziz University
 College of Medicine
 Massachusetts General Hospital
 Joan C. Edwards School of Medicine
 University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ghana
 School of Medicine
 Tehran Heart Center
 The University of Jordan
 Universitetet i Bergen
 Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences
 Alexandria University
 Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center
 SBUMS School of Medicine
 University of Duhok
 Research Center for Immunodeficiencies
 Karolinska Institutet
 Digestive Diseases Research Institute
 UNSW Sydney
 Folkehelseinstituttet
 Ethiopian Public Health Institute
 Indian Council of Medical Research
 University North
 Babcock University
 Tehran University of Medical Sciences
 Arba Minch University
 Auckland University of Technology
 Manipal Academy of Higher Education
 Duke University School of Medicine
 Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
 University of KwaZulu-Natal
 University of Sharjah
 Cairo University
 Penn Medicine
 Oulun Yliopisto
 Faculty of Medicine

Corresponding Author(s)

Arndt M.B.

Other Contributor(s)

Mahidol University

Abstract

Background: The six global nutrition targets (GNTs) related to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth (ie, wasting, stunting, and overweight), and anaemia among females of reproductive age were chosen by the World Health Assembly in 2012 as key indicators of maternal and child health, but there has yet to be a comprehensive report on progress for the period 2012 to 2021. We aimed to evaluate levels, trends, and observed-to-expected progress in prevalence and attributable burden from 2012 to 2021, with prevalence projections to 2050, in 204 countries and territories. Methods: The prevalence and attributable burden of each target indicator were estimated by age group, sex, and year in 204 countries and territories from 2012 to 2021 in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, the most comprehensive assessment of causes of death, disability, and risk factors to date. Country-specific relative performance to date was evaluated with a Bayesian meta-regression model that compares prevalence to expected values based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of societal development status. Target progress was forecasted from 2021 up to 2050 by modelling past trends with meta-regression using a combination of key quantities and then extrapolating future projections of those quantities. Findings: In 2021, a few countries had already met some of the GNTs: five for exclusive breastfeeding, four for stunting, 96 for child wasting, and three for child overweight, and none met the target for low birthweight or anaemia in females of reproductive age. Since 2012, the annualised rates of change (ARC) in the prevalence of child overweight increased in 201 countries and territories and ARC in the prevalence of anaemia in females of reproductive age decreased considerably in 26 countries. Between 2012 and 2021, SDI was strongly associated with indicator prevalence, apart from exclusive breastfeeding (|r-|=0·46–0·86). Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa had a decrease in the prevalence of multiple indicators that was more rapid than expected on the basis of SDI (the differences between observed and expected ARCs for child stunting and wasting were –0·5% and –1·3%, respectively). The ARC in the attributable burden of low birthweight, child stunting, and child wasting decreased faster than the ARC of the prevalence for each in most low-income and middle-income countries. In 2030, we project that 94 countries will meet one of the six targets, 21 countries will meet two targets, and 89 countries will not meet any targets. We project that seven countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, 28 for child stunting, and 101 for child wasting, and no countries will meet the targets for low birthweight, child overweight, and anaemia. In 2050, we project that seven additional countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, five for low birthweight, 96 for child stunting, nine for child wasting, and one for child overweight, and no countries are projected to meet the anaemia target. Interpretation: Based on current levels and past trends, few GNTs will be met by 2030. Major reductions in attributable burden for exclusive breastfeeding and anthropometric indicators should be recognised as huge scientific and policy successes, but the comparative lack of progress in reducing the prevalence of each, along with stagnant anaemia in women of reproductive age and widespread increases in child overweight, suggests a tenuous status quo. Continued investment in preventive and treatment efforts for acute childhood illness is crucial to prevent backsliding. Parallel development of effective treatments, along with commitment to multisectoral, long-term policies to address the determinants and causes of suboptimal nutrition, are sorely needed to gain ground. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Keyword(s)

Medicine

Availability

URI

https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/110707

Collections

Scopus 2024