A systematic review of environmental covariates and methods for spatial or temporal scrub typhus distribution prediction
Issued Date
2024-12-15
Resource Type
ISSN
00139351
eISSN
10960953
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85204986161
Journal Title
Environmental Research
Volume
263
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Environmental Research Vol.263 (2024)
Suggested Citation
Wang Q., Ma T., Ding F.Y., Lim A., Takaya S., Saraswati K., Hao M.M., Jiang D., Fang L.Q., Sartorius B., Day N.P.J., Maude R.J. A systematic review of environmental covariates and methods for spatial or temporal scrub typhus distribution prediction. Environmental Research Vol.263 (2024). doi:10.1016/j.envres.2024.120067 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/101473
Title
A systematic review of environmental covariates and methods for spatial or temporal scrub typhus distribution prediction
Author's Affiliation
Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit
UQ Centre for Clinical Research
Academy of Military Sciences
Universitas Indonesia
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
University of Washington School of Medicine
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
National University of Singapore
The Open University
Nuffield Department of Medicine
UQ Centre for Clinical Research
Academy of Military Sciences
Universitas Indonesia
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
University of Washington School of Medicine
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
National University of Singapore
The Open University
Nuffield Department of Medicine
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Background: Scrub typhus is underdiagnosed and underreported but emerging as a global public health problem. To inform future burden and prediction studies we examined through a systematic review the potential effect of environmental covariates on scrub typhus occurrence and the methods which have been used for its prediction. Methods: In this systematic review, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and other databases, with no language and publication time restrictions, for studies that investigated environmental covariates or utilized methods to predict the spatial or temporal human. Data were manually extracted following a set of queries and systematic analysis was conducted. Results: We included 68 articles published in 1978–2024 with relevant data from 7 countries/regions. Significant environmental risk factors for scrub typhus include temperature (showing positive or inverted-U relationships), precipitation (with positive or inverted-U patterns), humidity (exhibiting complex positive, inverted-U, or W-shaped associations), sunshine duration (with positive, inverted-U associations), elevation, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the proportion of cropland. Socioeconomic and biological factors were rarely explored. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) (n = 8) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach (n = 11) were the most popular methods for predicting temporal trends and spatial distribution of scrub typhus, respectively. Conclusions: Our findings summarized the evidence on environmental covariates affecting scrub typhus occurrence and the methodologies used for predictive modelling. We review the existing knowledge gaps and outline recommendations for future studies modelling disease prediction and burden. Trial registration: PROSPERO CRD42022315209.
