Association between precipitation and mortality due to diarrheal diseases by climate zone: A multi-country modeling study
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2024-07-17
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24747882
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2-s2.0-85199156656
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Environmental Epidemiology
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8
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4
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SCOPUS
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Environmental Epidemiology Vol.8 No.4 (2024) , e320
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Chua P.L.C., Tobias A., Madaniyazi L., Ng C.F.S., Phung V.L.H., Fu S.H., Rodriguez P.S., Brown P., Coelho M.D.S.Z.S., Saldiva P.H.N., Scovronick N., Deshpande A., Salazar M.A.S., Dorotan M.M.C., Tantrakarnapa K., Kliengchuay W., Abrutzky R., Carrasco-Escobar G., Roye D., Hales S., Hashizume M. Association between precipitation and mortality due to diarrheal diseases by climate zone: A multi-country modeling study. Environmental Epidemiology Vol.8 No.4 (2024) , e320. doi:10.1097/EE9.0000000000000320 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/100037
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Association between precipitation and mortality due to diarrheal diseases by climate zone: A multi-country modeling study
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item.page.oairecerif.author.affiliation
Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani
Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University
Graduate School of Medicine
Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt
CSIC - Instituto de Diagnostico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA)
Rollins School of Public Health
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of Otago
St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto
University of Toronto
Nagasaki University
Universidade de São Paulo
Climate Research Foundation
Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University
Graduate School of Medicine
Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt
CSIC - Instituto de Diagnostico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA)
Rollins School of Public Health
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of Otago
St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto
University of Toronto
Nagasaki University
Universidade de São Paulo
Climate Research Foundation
item.page.dc.contributor.correspondence
item.page.dc.contributor.other
item.page.dc.description.abstract
Background: Precipitation could affect the transmission of diarrheal diseases. The diverse precipitation patterns across different climates might influence the degree of diarrheal risk from precipitation. This study determined the associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality in tropical, temperate, and arid climate regions. Methods: Daily counts of diarrheal mortality and 28-day cumulative precipitation from 1997 to 2019 were analyzed across 29 locations in eight middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, India, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand). A two-stage approach was employed: the first stage is conditional Poisson regression models for each location, and the second stage is meta-analysis for pooling location-specific coefficients by climate zone. Results: In tropical climates, higher precipitation increases the risk of diarrheal mortality. Under extremely wet conditions (95th percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality increased by 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.4%, 25.7%) compared with minimum-risk precipitation. For temperate and arid climates, diarrheal mortality increases in both dry and wet conditions. In extremely dry conditions (fifth percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality risk increases by 3.8% (95% CI = 1.2%, 6.5%) for temperate and 5.5% (95% CI = 1.0%, 10.2%) for arid climates. Similarly, under extremely wet conditions, diarrheal mortality risk increases by 2.5% (95% CI = -0.1%, 5.1%) for temperate and 4.1% (95% CI = 1.1%, 7.3%) for arid climates. Conclusions: Associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality exhibit variations across different climate zones. It is crucial to consider climate-specific variations when generating global projections of future precipitation-related diarrheal mortality.