Identification of pre-diabetes subphenotypes for type 2 diabetes, related vascular complications and mortality

Abstract

Introduction Pre-diabetes comprises diverse subphenotypes linked to varying complications, type 2 diabetes, and mortality outcomes. This study aimed to explore these outcomes across different pre-diabetes subphenotypes. Research design and methods The dataset included adults without type 2 diabetes with baseline HbA1c and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) measurements from Siriraj Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand. The participants were classified into six subphenotypes via the k-means clustering method on the basis of age, body mass index, FPG, HbA1c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and alanine aminotransferase levels. The incidences of type 2 diabetes, long-term vascular complications and mortality were compared among subphenotypes over a median follow-up of 8.8 years, employing Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis adjusted for sex, statin use and hypertension status. Results Among the 4915 participants (mean age 60.1±10.1 years; 54.6% female), six clusters emerged: cluster 1, low risk (n=650; 13.2%); cluster 2, mild dysglycemia elderly (n=791; 16.1%); cluster 3, severe dysglycemia obese (n=1127; 22.9%); cluster 4, mild dysglycemia obese (n=963; 19.7%); cluster 5, severe dysmetabolic obese (n=337; 6.9%); and cluster 6, severe dysglycemia elderly (n=1042; 21.2%). Clusters were classified into diabetes risk subgroups: low risk (clusters 1 and 4) and high risk (clusters 3 and 5). Cluster 6 exhibited the highest risk, with significantly increased incidences of macrovascular complications (adjusted HR 2.22, 1.51-3.27) and type 2 diabetes (1.73, 1.42-2.12). In contrast, cluster 4 demonstrated the lowest risk, with significantly decreased incidences of new chronic kidney disease (0.65, 0.44-0.96), microvascular complications (0.62, 0.43-0.89) and mortality (0.25, 0.10-0.63). Conclusions Our pre-diabetes phenotyping approach effectively provides valuable insights into the risk of type 2 diabetes, vascular complications and mortality in individuals with pre-diabetes. Those with high-risk phenotypes should be prioritized for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular interventions to mitigate risks.