Forecasting and analysing the gap between Thailand’s wood pellet supply and global demand
Issued Date
2023-03-07
Resource Type
ISSN
25396161
eISSN
25396218
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85158864989
Journal Title
Engineering and Applied Science Research
Volume
50
Issue
2
Start Page
107
End Page
120
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Engineering and Applied Science Research Vol.50 No.2 (2023) , 107-120
Suggested Citation
Koondee P., Niemsakul J., Supeekit T., Somboonwiwat T., Chanpuypetch W. Forecasting and analysing the gap between Thailand’s wood pellet supply and global demand. Engineering and Applied Science Research Vol.50 No.2 (2023) , 107-120. 120. doi:10.14456/easr.2023.12 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/82649
Title
Forecasting and analysing the gap between Thailand’s wood pellet supply and global demand
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
With the global concern for climate change on the rise, the use of biomass wood pellets as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels is gaining popularity in numerous countries, such as the European Union (EU), the United States, Canada, Japan, and South Korea. In response, the Thai government has initiated a project to promote the cultivation of fast-growing trees, such as Acacia, which can serve as feedstock for biomass power plants both domestically and internationally. The objective of this study is to evaluate the demand-supply gap for wood pellets in Thailand. To predict future demand for wood pellets, historical import data from January 2017 to December 2021 were examined and analysed, with a variety of time-series forecasting techniques, including the Simple Moving Average (SMA), the Holt’s Two-Parameter method, and the ARIMA method, being employed. The appropriate techniques were subsequently chosen based on the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of the analysis can be utilised to identify market gaps and growth opportunities, and to develop a comprehensive supply chain strategy for wood pellets, ranging from upstream tree plantation to downstream demand.