Protocol to study the role of alcohol consumption and alcohol control policies for economic development and health in 2000–2023 in Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: A modelling study

Abstract

Introduction: Economic development leads to higher life expectancy, and in most countries is also associated with a higher level of alcohol consumption, as more people start to consume alcohol. As alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for many diseases, this increased consumption of alcohol reduces life expectancy, and in turn slows down economic development. However, alcohol control policies may reduce consumption and mitigate the detrimental effects of alcohol use on life expectancy and the economy. The objectives of this study are to quantify the interrelations between alcohol control policies, levels and patterns of consumption, life expectancy, and economic development for the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries between 2000 and 2023. Methods and analysis: Secondary data analysis of available data will be undertaken, using a cross-sectionally correlated and time-wise autoregressive model for the main conceptual model. In addition, the detrimental effects of alcohol consumption on economic development will be estimated directly and indirectly via its effect on health indicators. Ethics and Dissemination: As a secondary analysis study of publicly available data, this research does not require approval by a research ethics board. Its results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications, webinars, and other forms available to decision-makers. Strengths and limitations: We selected a region, the ASEAN countries, which experienced high growth in economic growth wealth as measured by increases in per capita Gross Domestic Product in Purchasing Power Parity since the turn of the century. We were able to use standardized comparable data from international agencies (World Bank, World Health Organization). The study is based on a on a strong conceptual model; i.e., the framework of Angus Deaton, expanded to include the impact of alcohol. We have sufficient data points available to conduct the cross-sectionally correlated and time-wise autoregressive model. However, there may be difficulties in modeling feedback loops within a system in which a change in one variable can eventually lead back to affect the original variable. Finally, there are important potential practical implications for health policy.