Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China
Issued Date
2023-01-01
Resource Type
ISSN
13541013
eISSN
13652486
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85174251710
Journal Title
Global Change Biology
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Global Change Biology (2023)
Suggested Citation
Ding F.Y., Ge H.H., Ma T., Wang Q., Hao M.M., Li H., Zhang X.A., Maude R.J., Wang L.P., Jiang D., Fang L.Q., Liu W. Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China. Global Change Biology (2023). doi:10.1111/gcb.16969 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/90876
Title
Projecting spatiotemporal dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in the mainland of China
Author's Affiliation
Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Nuffield Department of Medicine
Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Nuffield Department of Medicine
Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with increasing incidence and geographic extent. The extent to which global climate change affects the incidence of SFTS disease remains obscure. We use an integrated multi-model, multi-scenario framework to assess the impact of global climate change on SFTS disease in China. The spatial distribution of habitat suitability for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis was predicted by applying a boosted regression tree model under four alternative climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the periods 2030–2039, 2050–2059, and 2080–2089. We incorporate the SFTS cases in the mainland of China from 2010 to 2019 with environmental variables and the projected distribution of H. longicornis into a generalized additive model to explore the current and future spatiotemporal dynamics of SFTS. Our results demonstrate an expanded geographic distribution of H. longicornis toward Northern and Northwestern China, showing a more pronounced change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the environmental suitability of H. longicornis is predicted to be reduced in Central and Eastern China. The SFTS incidence in three time periods (2030–2039, 2050–2059, and 2080–2089) is predicted to be increased as compared to the 2010s in the context of various RCPs. A heterogeneous trend across provinces, however, was observed, when an increased incidence in Liaoning and Shandong provinces, while decreased incidence in Henan province is predicted. Notably, we predict possible outbreaks in Xinjiang and Yunnan in the future, where only sporadic cases have been reported previously. These findings highlight the need for tick control and population awareness of SFTS in endemic regions, and enhanced monitoring in potential risk areas.