Applying System Dynamics to Enhance Scenario-Based Roadmapping

Abstract

Technology roadmapping (TRM) has been recognized as the approach for strategic planning, especially for technology-driven companies. The recent researches aim to enhance the robustness of TRM process in order to cope with rapid change of technologies, business uncertainties, and constant shift of customer behavior. Scenario analysis is one of techniques has been considered to integrate with roadmapping so that the management team can gain insights on future possibilities. This paper extends the analysis to strengthen scenario-based roadmapping by applying a system dynamics (SD) to generate conditions for different scenarios and then integrate into roadmaps. With the proposed approach, it will make a roadmap not only more responsive to deal with uncertain circumstances but also it can be used for mitigating foreseeable risks while aiming to pursuing potential opportunities.