Population and transmission dynamics model to determine WHO targets for eliminating Hepatitis C virus in Thailand

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C Virus is endemic to many areas of Thailand, whose population structure is tending towards older age groups as birth rate and mortality decrease. With around 790,000 cases in 2019, prevalence is still relatively high, but the World Health Organisation has called for elimination of HCV by 2030. METHODS: An age structured compartmental transmission model was used to explore the effectiveness of screening strategies with respect to WHO elimination goals, as well as the effect of changing population structure on the success or failure of such strategies. RESULTS: Population structure did not appear to affect the timeline of elimination targets and screening individuals over the age of 30 at a high (50% per year) coverage could bring forward achievement of the incidence elimination target by four years compared to baseline (approximately 6% per year). Achievement of mortality elimination targets was not reached until after the end of the simulation (2040), and intensive screening strategies did not appear to lead to incidence elimination by 2030. CONCLUSION: The model suggested that with age-targeted screening programmes incidence elimination could be brought forward by several years. However, WHO elimination goals may not be met by 2030.