Effects of rainfall on human leptospirosis in Thailand: evidence of multi-province study using distributed lag non-linear model
Issued Date
2022-12-01
Resource Type
ISSN
14363240
eISSN
14363259
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85131534549
Journal Title
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Volume
36
Issue
12
Start Page
4119
End Page
4132
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Vol.36 No.12 (2022) , 4119-4132
Suggested Citation
Phosri A. Effects of rainfall on human leptospirosis in Thailand: evidence of multi-province study using distributed lag non-linear model. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Vol.36 No.12 (2022) , 4119-4132. 4132. doi:10.1007/s00477-022-02250-x Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/84577
Title
Effects of rainfall on human leptospirosis in Thailand: evidence of multi-province study using distributed lag non-linear model
Author(s)
Author's Affiliation
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Leptospirosis is a zoonotic bacterial disease that remains an important public health problem, especially in tropical developing countries. Many previous studies in Thailand have revealed the outbreak of human leptospirosis after heavy rainfall, but research determining its quantitative risks associated with rainfall, especially at the national level, remains limited. This study aims to examine the association between rainfall and human leptospirosis across 60 provinces of Thailand. A quasi-Poisson regression framework combined with the distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate province-specific association between rainfall and human leptospirosis, adjusting for potential confounders. Province-specific estimates were then pooled to derive regional and national estimates using random-effect meta-analysis. The highest risk of leptospirosis associated with rainfall at national level was observed at the same month (lag 0). Using 0 cm/month of rainfall as a reference, the relative risks of leptospirosis associated with heavy (90th percentile), very heavy (95th percentile), and extremely heavy (99th percentile) rainfall at the national level were 1.0994 (95% CI 0.9747, 1.2401), 1.1428 (95% CI 1.0154, 1.2862), and 1.1848 (95% CI 1.0494, 1.3378), respectively. The highest risk of human leptospirosis associated with rainfall was observed in the northern and north-eastern regions. Specifically, the relative risks of leptospirosis associated with extremely heavy rainfall in northern and north-eastern regions were 1.2362 (95% CI 0.9110, 1.6775) and 1.2046 (95% CI 0.9728, 1.4918), respectively. Increasing rainfall was associated with increased risks of leptospirosis, especially in the northern and northeastern regions of Thailand. This finding could be used for precautionary warnings against heavy rainfall.