Mortality and economic burden of PM2.5 and NO2 in Thailand using satellite remote sensing and Random Forest algorithms
5
Issued Date
2025-12-01
Resource Type
eISSN
26670100
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105020835975
Journal Title
Environmental Challenges
Volume
21
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Environmental Challenges Vol.21 (2025)
Suggested Citation
Khempunjakul T., Phosri A., Sangkharat K., Thongphunchung K., Kanchanasuta S., Patthanaissaranukool W. Mortality and economic burden of PM2.5 and NO2 in Thailand using satellite remote sensing and Random Forest algorithms. Environmental Challenges Vol.21 (2025). doi:10.1016/j.envc.2025.101366 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/113007
Title
Mortality and economic burden of PM2.5 and NO2 in Thailand using satellite remote sensing and Random Forest algorithms
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Air pollution remains a leading environmental health problem in Thailand, where rapid urbanization, biomass burning, and industrial activity contribute to high concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM<inf>2.5</inf>) and nitrogen dioxide (NO<inf>2</inf>). However, most existing studies rely upon data from fixed-site monitoring stations, leaving large areas underrepresented. This study aimed to develop satellite-based Random Forest (RF) models to estimate daily concentrations of PM<inf>2.5</inf> and NO<inf>2</inf> across Thailand from 2018 to 2022 using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data from Terra and Aqua satellites, and NO<inf>2</inf> from TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite. These estimated concentrations were then linked to health and economic impacts using concentration-response functions and the Value of Statistical Life (VSL). The RF models demonstrated high performance. For PM<inf>2.5</inf>, the model achieved R<sup>2</sup> of 0.94 and RMSE of 7.40 µg m<sup>-3</sup> in training, and R<sup>2</sup> of 0.71 with RMSE of 15.09 µg m<sup>-3</sup> in testing. For NO<inf>2</inf>, R<sup>2</sup> values were 0.94 and 0.73, with RMSE of 2.21 and 4.41 ppb, respectively. Nationwide mean concentrations during the study period were 29.51 ± 2.82 µg m<sup>-3</sup> for PM<inf>2.5</inf> and 4.61 ± 0.81 ppb for NO<inf>2</inf>, with pronounced regional and seasonal contrasts. Specifically, PM<inf>2.5</inf> peaked in northern provinces during the dry season, while NO<inf>2</inf> levels were concentrated in Bangkok and industrial regions. Modeled concentrations were higher than ground-based averages as the model captures unmonitored high-pollution areas, particularly in the north. Long-term exposure to PM<inf>2.5</inf> and NO<inf>2</inf> was associated with 20,487 deaths (95 % CI: 12,833–28,079) and 15,394 deaths (95 % CI: 10,281–20,487), respectively, corresponding to economic losses of 2313 million THB (95 % CI: 1449–3171) and 1738 million THB (95 % CI: 1161–2313) annually, respectively. This study provides a reliable tool for nationwide air quality monitoring and health impact assessment and supports development of sustainable environmental and public health strategies.