Validation of ARIC heart failure risk score in an Asian population: Results from the CORE-Thailand registry
Issued Date
2025-05-01
Resource Type
ISSN
14702118
eISSN
14734893
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105005284651
Pubmed ID
40316142
Journal Title
Clinical Medicine, Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London
Volume
25
Issue
3
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Clinical Medicine, Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London Vol.25 No.3 (2025)
Suggested Citation
Osataphan N., Chichareon P., Wongcharoen W., Leemasawat K., Prasertwitayakij N., Suwannasom P., Gunaparn S., Rattanasumawong K., Krittayaphong R., Phrommintikul A. Validation of ARIC heart failure risk score in an Asian population: Results from the CORE-Thailand registry. Clinical Medicine, Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London Vol.25 No.3 (2025). doi:10.1016/j.clinme.2025.100322 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/110326
Title
Validation of ARIC heart failure risk score in an Asian population: Results from the CORE-Thailand registry
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Background: The Atherosclerotic Risk in Communities (ARIC) heart failure (HF) score was originally developed in the USA to predict new-onset HF. Our goal was to validate the ARIC-HF score and develop a new score to predict HF in an Asian population. Methods: The Cohort Of patients with high Risk for cardiovascular Events (CORE-Thailand) was a prospective registry of Thai patients with high atherosclerotic risk. Patients were followed for 5 years for HF events. The ARIC-HF score was applied to predict HF. The new ARIC-CORE score was developed by re-estimating the coefficients of ARIC score variables using ridge regression. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed. The net reclassification index (NRI) was used to compare the prediction performance between the models. Clinical utility was assessed with a decision curve analysis. Results: From a total of 8,919 patients, 185 (2.1 %) developed HF. The ARIC-HF score and ARIC-CORE HF risk score provided good discrimination with C-statistics of 0.710, (95 % confidence interval (CI); 0.673–0.747) and 0.75, (95 % CI; 0.715–0.785), respectively. Both models showed a good calibration. Using the ARIC-CORE HF score was associated with an improved reclassification of HF (NRI 0.369, 95 % CI; 0.286–0.551) compared to the ARIC-HF score. The net clinical benefit of the ARIC-CORE HF score was higher than the ARIC-HF score in the decision curve analysis. Conclusion: The ARIC-HF score performed well in predicting heart failure in the CORE population. The ARIC-CORE HF score showed superior predictive ability and clinical benefit. Further research is needed to validate these models in diverse Asian populations.