Impact of alcohol excise taxation and structural reforms on per capita consumption in Thailand, 1995–2021: an interrupted time-series analysis
Issued Date
2026-04-01
Resource Type
ISSN
09553959
eISSN
18734758
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105030829083
Pubmed ID
41722211
Journal Title
International Journal of Drug Policy
Volume
150
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
International Journal of Drug Policy Vol.150 (2026)
Suggested Citation
Zayar N.N., Vichitkunakorn P., Aekplakorn W., Chaiyasong S., Correia D., Hassan A.S., Htet K.K.K., Nontarak J., Patanavanich R., Rovira P., Shield K., Sornpaisarn B., Saengow U., Wichaidit W., Assanangkornchai S., Rehm J. Impact of alcohol excise taxation and structural reforms on per capita consumption in Thailand, 1995–2021: an interrupted time-series analysis. International Journal of Drug Policy Vol.150 (2026). doi:10.1016/j.drugpo.2026.105191 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/115497
Title
Impact of alcohol excise taxation and structural reforms on per capita consumption in Thailand, 1995–2021: an interrupted time-series analysis
Author's Affiliation
University of Toronto
University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine
Universidade do Porto
Universitätsklinikum Hamburg-Eppendorf
Mahidol University
Prince of Songkla University
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health
Mahasarakham University
Ramathibodi Hospital
Walailak University
Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University
Agencia de Salut Publica de Barcelona
WHO Regional Office for Europe
Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR)
PAHO/WHO Collaborating Centre at CAMH
University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine
Universidade do Porto
Universitätsklinikum Hamburg-Eppendorf
Mahidol University
Prince of Songkla University
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health
Mahasarakham University
Ramathibodi Hospital
Walailak University
Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University
Agencia de Salut Publica de Barcelona
WHO Regional Office for Europe
Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR)
PAHO/WHO Collaborating Centre at CAMH
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Background Alcohol taxation is a highly effective alcohol control policy, but adjustments for inflation and affordability are essential to sustain its impact. Between 1996 and 2017, Thailand implemented 11 excise tax increases and two structural reforms. This study examines the combined effects of these changes on alcohol consumption over time. Methods Interrupted time-series analyses, adjusting for autocorrelation and seasonality, were conducted using monthly recorded adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC) data from January 1995 to December 2021. We assessed the impact of tax increase policies that affected more than 15 % of the total alcohol market, and two structural reforms. Increases in 1997–98 were combined due to their temporal proximity. Results Excise tax increases in January 1997, March 2001, and September 2007 were associated with reductions in APC of 9.7 % (95 % CI: 4.1 %, 15.0 %), 4.8 % (95 % CI: -0.9 %, 10.2 %), and 6.7 % (95 % CI: 0.6 %, 12.3 %), respectively. Structural reforms in 2013 and 2017 had on average larger effects, reducing APC by 9.3 % (95 % CI: 1.1 %, 16.8 %) and 23.0 % (95 % CI: 14.5 %, 30.6 %), respectively. Modelling indicates that without these taxation policies, total recorded APC between 1995 and 2021 could have been on average 0.56 litres (L) higher in each year, and 1.99 L higher by 2021. Conclusion Alcohol excise taxation (i.e., excise tax increases and structural reforms) significantly reduced APC in Thailand. Future taxation policies should include automatic adjustments for changes in inflation and/or disposable household income to sustain their long-term public health impact.