Effects of Thailand’s visa-free policy for Chinese tourists: evidence from a small-sample event study

Abstract

This study uses the visa exemption policy launched in September 2023 as the intervention point and employs an event study approach under small-sample conditions to dynamically evaluate its impact on Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand and Thailand’s tourism economy. The findings indicate that the visa-free policy generated a short-term positive effect on both the number of Chinese tourists and tourism revenue during the initial stage of implementation, but the effect weakened over time. By incorporating CRV3-adjusted standard errors and robust testing procedures, the study enhances the credibility of its inferences and offers empirical insights into policy shocks under small-sample conditions.