Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change
Issued Date
2024-10-01
Resource Type
eISSN
14622920
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85206695963
Pubmed ID
39413807
Journal Title
Environmental microbiology
Volume
26
Issue
10
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Environmental microbiology Vol.26 No.10 (2024) , e70000
Suggested Citation
Tang T., Ge H.H., Ma T., Hao M.m., Chen S., Lv C.L., Qiu Y.B., Wang Y.H., Tian Y., Chen J.J., Yuan S., Wang Q., Jiang D., Ding F.Y., Liu W., Fang L.Q. Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change. Environmental microbiology Vol.26 No.10 (2024) , e70000. doi:10.1111/1462-2920.70000 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/101759
Title
Global risk dynamics of Borrelia miyamotoi in the context of climate change
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
The impact of Borrelia miyamotoi on human health, facilitated by the expanding geographical distribution and increasing population of Ixodes ticks, remains obscure in the context of global climate change. We employed multiple models to evaluate the effect of global climate change on the risk of B. miyamotoi worldwide across various scenarios. The habitat suitability index of four primary vector tick species for B. miyamotoi, including Ixodes persulcatus, Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes pacificus and Ixodes scapularis, was projected using a boosted regression tree model, considering multiple shared socio-economic pathway scenarios over various time periods. The modelling analysis reveals that, apart from I. scapularis, future global warming will result in a northward shift in the other three vector tick species and a gradual reduction in suitable habitats. Random forest models indicate consistent changes in B. miyamotoi and its primary tick species, with potential risk areas shrinking and shifting northward, particularly in the eastern USA, northeastern and northern Europe and northeast Asia. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced active surveillance of B. miyamotoi infection in primary vector tick species across projected potential risk areas. The effect of climate change on B. miyamotoi distribution might have significant implications for public health decision-making regarding tick-borne pathogens.