Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission
Issued Date
2024-03-30
Resource Type
ISSN
24058440
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85188148560
Journal Title
Heliyon
Volume
10
Issue
6
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Heliyon Vol.10 No.6 (2024)
Suggested Citation
Jitsuk N.C., Chadsuthi S., Modchang C. Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission. Heliyon Vol.10 No.6 (2024). doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28042 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/97748
Title
Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission
Author(s)
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Mass vaccination has proven to be an effective control measure for mitigating the transmission of infectious diseases. Throughout history, various vaccination strategies have been employed to control infections and terminate outbreaks. In this study, we utilized the transmission of COVID-19 as a case study and constructed a stochastic age-structured compartmental model to investigate the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. Our analysis focused on estimating the outbreak extinction probability under different vaccination scenarios in both homogeneous and heterogeneous populations. Notably, we found that population heterogeneity can enhance the likelihood of outbreak extinction at varying levels of vaccine coverage. Prioritizing vaccinations for individuals with higher infection risk was found to maximize outbreak extinction probability and reduce overall infections, while allocating vaccines to those with higher mortality risk has been proven more effective in reducing deaths. Moreover, our study highlighted the significance of booster doses as the vaccine effectiveness wanes over time, showing that they can significantly enhance the extinction probability and mitigate disease transmission.